Bitcoin Miners’ Performance: A Story of High Betas and Low Correlations
Despite Bitcoin’s 22% increase compared to the year, public mining companies listed on Nasdaq have struggled to keep up, with a same-weighted basket of mining stocks rising only 12% between January 1 and August 18. However, this underperformance masks a reversal in the past two months, where miners rose by 11% compared to Bitcoin’s increase, turning the performance into a positive area.
The divergence between Bitcoin’s performance and that of mining stocks highlights the structural risks in mining stocks and the concentrated falls that occur when conditions are aligned. To evaluate their role as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, it’s essential to understand where miners are hiking and where they are crossing.
Dispersion within the Group
The dispersion within the group of mining stocks has been extreme throughout the year. Irish and Wulf have led the pack, with year-to-year increases of 101% and 81.5%, respectively. In contrast, BTDR has declined by 36%, 23.8%, and BITF has fallen by almost 16%. Mara, traditionally one of the most liquid names, has dropped by almost 7%. This significant performance difference demonstrates how much returns depend on balance sheet management, financing events, and operational details, rather than just Bitcoin’s performance.
Short-term windows show a completely different picture. In the 10 days leading up to August 18, the mining basket rose 17.3%, while Bitcoin slipped by 0.5%. The rally was widespread, with Wulf rising by 97%, 22.8%, CIFFR by 29.2%, and Bitf by 9.3%.
Risk Indicators and Correlations
Risk indicators further illustrate the unequal nature of this service. In the last 60 days, several miners have shown a textbook example of high beta: Gree with a beta of 1.57, BTDR at 1.44, and Mara at 1.39. However, correlations tell a different story. Despite the doubling of the price, Wulf shows a negative correlation with Bitcoin over the same horizon. Irish, which is up over 100% over the same period, also shows a corrected correlation.
Drawdowns reinforce the structural gap between miners and Bitcoin. The maximum drawdown of BTC in 2025 is 28%. In contrast, most miners were hit with drawdowns of 43-72%. Even after their rebound, the scars of the first half remain visible in the price charts. Investors who view miners as a lever to BTC must take these equity risks into account, especially during consolidation phases in the underlying asset.
Conclusion
Mining stocks can bring strong returns in certain market phases, offering top convexity and stock market volatility, operational leverage, and financing risk. The data show that the lever cuts in both directions: the equilibrium index is below average BTC year-to-year, even if a handful of names provided exceptional upward trends. Timing and stock selection become essential, as possessing the wrong miner at the wrong time meant more than twice as deep a loss as Bitcoin, while Irish or Wulf meant three-digit profits.
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