As the cryptocurrency market approaches September, a month notoriously known for being challenging for Bitcoin, investors and traders are bracing themselves for potential price fluctuations. Since 2013, September has proven to be a difficult month for Bitcoin, with losses in eight of the past 11 years. But what are the reasons behind this trend, and is it inevitable that prices will decrease this year?
Historical Performance of Bitcoin in September
One possible explanation for Bitcoin’s poor performance in September is the fact that retail investors often make profits during the summer months to cover their fall costs, such as tuition fees and tax planning. This could lead to a decrease in demand for Bitcoin, resulting in lower prices. Additionally, the expectation of a “red month” can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as investors become more cautious and sell their assets, further driving down the market.
Market Trends and Investor Behavior
Despite the historical trends, it’s essential to note that most of the declines in September were modest, and Bitcoin often recovered strongly in the following months. In fact, the fourth quarter has historically brought significant rallies, with October 2020 being a prime example, where Bitcoin rose from around $10,800 to over $13,800, marking a profit of more than 27%. This suggests that September may not be a lost cause for Bitcoin, and investors should be prepared for potential opportunities.
August Summary: A Dramatic Month for Bitcoin
August 2025 was a dramatic month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency reaching an all-time high of $124,533 on August 14, only to drop 11% to around $110,000 two weeks later. The market value of almost $200 billion evaporated, triggered by a previously dormant whale selling approximately 24,000 BTC. This event led to the largest liquidation cascade of the year, with almost $900 million in derivative positions being wiped out.
Preparation for September: Scenarios and Signals
Crypto trader Cas Abbé has outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin as September approaches. The primary “Range & Repair” scenario (40% probability) expects Bitcoin to trade between $110,000 and $120,000, as excess leverage is reduced and institutional investors gradually accumulate. The “Second Flush” scenario (35% probability) predicts another wave of liquidations if Bitcoin falls below $110,000, driving the price into the high $100,000 range. Conversely, the “Quick Reclaim” scenario (25% probability) suggests institutions will buy aggressively, allowing BTC to quickly reclaim the $117,000-$118,000 range and trigger an earlier return of the bullish mood.
Monitoring On-Chain and Macro Signals
In September, Abbé advises traders to monitor several on-chain and macro signals, including option market activities, which can offer valuable insights into positioning and sentiment by the end of the month. With thin liquidity, increased volatility, and institutional buyers waiting in the wings, September can present both risks and opportunities for Bitcoin investors.
Current Market Data
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is ranked 1st by market capitalization, with a price down 0.2% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has a market capitalization of $2.16 trillion, with a 24-hour trade volume of $44.55 billion. The entire cryptocurrency market is valued at $3.79 trillion, with a 24-hour volume of $110.48 billion, and Bitcoin’s dominance is currently at 57.03%.
For more information on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, visit https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-red-month-why-september-still-shapes-the-crypto-cycle/
