A recent Senate-backed stopgap measure to reopen the U.S. government has significant implications for the economy, particularly in regards to inflation data and Treasury issuance, which in turn affects Bitcoin liquidity. The chamber advanced a continuing resolution that provides funding for agencies through January 30, 2026, which is now pending approval in the House of Representatives.
This development follows a 41-day expiration date and would restore the flow of official data, anchoring interest rate expectations and the value of the dollar, as reported by Time. The legislation, known as H.R. 5371, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026, is available on Congress.gov and outlines the reporting and mechanisms typical for a short-term extension that maintains the prior year’s funding levels while Congress works on full-year appropriations.
Impact on Bitcoin Liquidity
The reopening of the government is significant for the crypto market as it restarts the macro data pipeline, sets Treasury supplies back to a predictable rhythm, and clarifies the near-term path for real interest rates that influence Bitcoin’s risk appetite and spot ETF flows. During the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis suspended some publications, including the Labor Department’s major printing operations.
The upcoming calendar includes key releases such as the October CPI on November 13, real earnings release, PPI on November 14, and import and export price indices on November 18. These releases will reset the market’s reliance on data, focusing on inflation and labor rather than fiscal headlines, which will have a direct impact on Bitcoin’s price and liquidity.
Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Bitcoin
The 10-year TIPS implied real yield is currently at 1.83%, above mid-year levels. A favorable CPI reading would tend to ease real yields and financial conditions, supporting risky assets, including Bitcoin. The supply of government bonds has started the week with a stable design, with the quarterly refund providing coupon sizes of $125 billion for the 3-, 10-, and 30-year notes and bonds, and approximately $26.8 billion of new cash raised.
According to the Treasury Department’s redemption statement, officials plan to keep coupon rates constant for several quarters, using invoices and cash management accounts for greater flexibility, and continuing buybacks to support market functioning. This approach limits the likelihood of a short-term term premium shock upon resumption of operations, keeping the consumer price index the dominant driver of duration.
Bitcoin ETF Flows and Market Liquidity
The spot Bitcoin ETF flow is another crucial factor influencing Bitcoin’s liquidity. Global crypto ETFs achieved record amounts in early October as Bitcoin hit new highs, before activity slowed and US funds saw net outflows in early November. However, according to Kaiko data, order book depth has improved significantly compared to 2022-23, with lower slippage on larger ticket sizes, which amplifies macroeconomic moves and supports liquidity.
As the CPI returns, there are three possible macro paths for Bitcoin liquidity. If the CPI is at or below consensus and refunds occur without friction, real 10-year yields could drift into the 1.6-1.7% range, the dollar could weaken, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs could trend toward modest net inflows. Alternatively, a high CPI reading could lead to real yields pushing above 1.9%, ETF outflows, and defensive trading in cryptocurrencies.
Issuance Details and Market Outlook
The following issuance details for this week’s refund are available, providing a clear reference for delivery versus CPI:
| Security | Size | Collected new money |
|---|---|---|
| 3 year bond | $58 billion | A total of $26.8 billion |
| 10 year bond | $42 billion | |
| 30 year bond | $25 billion |
According to the Treasury Department, holding steady over several quarters covers these magnitudes, with the caveat that officials evaluate future increases as needed. This message limits near-term uncertainty over coupon duration, putting the consumer price index at the center of this week’s interest rate stimulus.
With real yields still high, the crypto market is primed for a binary reaction driven by the inflation surprise and the direction of the dollar. For more information on how the shutdown truce affects Bitcoin liquidity, visit https://cryptoslate.com/how-shutdown-truce-puts-inflation-and-fed-back-in-focus-for-bitcoin-liquidity/
