Quantum Computers Pose Significant Threat to Bitcoin’s Security
A prominent on-chain analyst, James Check, founder of Checkonchain, has warned that the emergence of powerful quantum computers could lead to one of the most disruptive moments in Bitcoin’s history. The primary concern is not the technology itself, but the potential inability of the Bitcoin community to reach a consensus on how to respond to the threat. Check argues that the lack of agreement on freezing coins that are not migrated to quantum-resistant addresses could have significant consequences.
According to Check, the development politics and decentralized governance structure of Bitcoin make rapid coordination nearly impossible, leaving old coins vulnerable to potential quantum attacks. Data from BitBo shows that 32.4% of all Bitcoin has not moved in the past five years, while 16.8% has remained dormant for more than a decade. These unmoved coins would be the first targets if quantum computers crack Bitcoin’s current signature schemes.
Bitcoin’s Quantum Problem: A Technological and Political Challenge
Delphi Digital’s Ceteris Paribus notes that Bitcoin’s quantum problem is not solely technological, but also a matter of what happens to the vast reserves kept in non-quantum-resistant formats. The unresolved issue is how to address the millions of coins that have remained untouched for years. Check argues that the focus should be on developing quantum-safe wallets and letting the market sort out the rest.
Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography via ECDSA and Schnorr signatures, both of which are vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm once a sufficiently advanced quantum machine is built. While the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology has approved several quantum-resistant signature schemes, adopting such standards requires community-wide agreement.
Preparing for the Quantum Threat
Some researchers estimate that specialized machines with around 126,000 physical qubits could break the elliptic curve signatures that secure Bitcoin wallets. Others project that around 2,300 logical qubits could be enough to break Bitcoin’s encryption, potentially placing a workable attack window within the late 2020s or early 2030s. Cybersecurity specialists warn that adversaries may already be preparing for future breakthroughs using “harvest now, decrypt later” strategies, collecting data from public blockchains today in anticipation of later quantum advances.
Naoris Protocol CEO David Carvalho notes that roughly 6–7 million BTC are stored in address types that expose public keys directly, making them especially vulnerable to quantum attacks. Some governments and institutions have begun adjusting their practices in response to these warnings. El Salvador split its 6,284 BTC national reserve across 14 addresses to reduce exposure to potential quantum attacks. Major financial firms, such as BlackRock and Tether, have also acknowledged the risk.
For more information on this topic, visit the original source: https://cryptonews.com/news/quantum-computer-bitcoin-lost-coins/
