Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements have become increasingly complex, driven by a combination of on-chain and off-chain factors. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024, the variables explaining BTC’s price fluctuations have shifted. On-chain metrics now describe the market’s underlying tension, while off-chain signals, such as ETF flows, perpetual swap funding, stablecoin liquidity, and macro shocks, have become the primary drivers of price movements.
Understanding the New Drivers of Bitcoin’s Price
A joint market study by Gemini and Glassnode, published in February 2025, estimated that spot ETFs had accumulated over 515,000 BTC, approximately 2.4 times the amount issued by miners during the same period. This significant influx of institutional investment has made ETF flows a crucial factor in predicting Bitcoin’s valuation. According to a study by Mieszko Mazur and Efstathios Polyzos, capital flows in US spot ETFs are more meaningful than traditional crypto variables in predicting Bitcoin’s price.
ETF Net Inflows: The Primary Driver of Bitcoin’s Price
In the first quarter of 2024, new US spot ETFs recorded net inflows of around $12.1 billion, coinciding with BTC’s breakout of its previous all-time high. In contrast, November 2025 saw net withdrawals of approximately $3.7 billion, the highest monthly outflows since launch, as BTC slipped from over $126,000 to a high of $80,000. Glassnode’s November reports cited weakness in ETF flows as a primary reason for BTC’s decline below key cost base bands, with spot order flow being “extraordinarily sensitive” to relatively small incremental flows in a thin market.
The Role of Perpetrator Financing and Futures Basis
Derivatives data from major trading venues, such as BitMEX, Binance, and Bybit, show that funding is concentrated around a neutral band this cycle, with fewer blow-off extremes than in 2017 or 2021. However, spikes in funding rates still precede local highs and liquidations. A 2025 SSRN article by Emre Inan found that BTC perpetual funding on Binance and Bybit exhibits predictability in funding rates, helping to predict the next funding squeeze and adding data to verify the next BTC move.
Stablecoin Liquidity: A Key Factor in Bitcoin’s Price Movements
Stablecoin supply and exchange balances continue to closely match BTC price movements. Bursts in stablecoin supply growth and rising forex balances have historically preceded or accompanied large BTC rallies, while stagnant or negative stablecoin growth has led to front-run corrections. CEX.IO’s January 2025 review shows that stablecoin supply increased by about 59% in 2024, reaching approximately 1% of the US dollar money supply, with a transfer volume of $27.6 trillion.
Holder Regimes and Macro Liquidity: Additional Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Price
Glassnode and Avenir’s June 2025 report notes that the BTC share held by long-term holders reached historic highs, narrowing the free float by early 2025. However, an increasing “hot capital share” of short-term, price-sensitive supply has caused the market to react strongly to new flows. Additionally, 21Shares argues that the story of Bitcoin cycles before 2024 could be told using on-chain cohort and cost base metrics alone, but after ETFs, it is necessary to combine them with ETF flows, derivatives, and macros.
Conclusion: The Interplay Between ETF Flows, Perpetrator Financing, Stablecoin Liquidity, Holder Regimes, and Macro Liquidity
The five signals discussed in this article – ETF net inflows, perpetrator financing, stablecoin liquidity, holder regimes, and macro liquidity – are interconnected and influence Bitcoin’s price movements. The ETF era has made Bitcoin more of a traditional risk asset with crypto-specific features. As the market continues to evolve, understanding the interplay between these signals is crucial for investors and traders. For more information, visit https://cryptoslate.com/the-5-signals-that-really-move-bitcoin-now-and-how-they-hit-your-portfolio/
