Bitcoin’s Struggle to Recapture $93,000 Mark Amidst Positive US Stock Market and Rising Gold Prices
Despite the positive momentum in the US stock market and rising gold prices, Bitcoin (BTC) failed to recapture the $93,000 mark. With the S&P 500 trading just 1% below its all-time high, traders are examining what could spark sustained bullish momentum for Bitcoin. The current market conditions have led to increased speculation about the future of Bitcoin, with many investors looking for signs of a potential price surge.
Data from the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that traders give an 87% chance of a rate cut on December 10, up from 71% the previous week. This increase in rate cut expectations has been driven by signs of weakness in the US labor market, with the U.S. Labor Department noting that continuing claims rose to 1.96 million in the week ended Nov. 15.
Key Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Price
Demand for BTC put (sell) options and stagnant ETF inflows have kept momentum contained despite easing macroeconomic conditions. The annualized base interest rate for Bitcoin futures, as shown on Laevitas.ch, indicates a 4% premium to spot markets, which is lower than the typical range of 5% to 10% under neutral conditions.
The lack of interest in leveraged long positions could indicate ongoing concerns after Bitcoin declined 18% in the last 30 days. BTC options markets can help assess whether whales and market makers fear further downside risks, with bearish phases often characterized by increased demand for put (sell) options.
Impact of Macroeconomic Trends on Bitcoin
Despite the positive momentum in the US stock market, Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks continues to decline. The S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin/USD are shown in the chart below, highlighting the divergence in their price movements.
The longer BTC stays above $90,000, the more confident bulls will become, supported by the return of ETF inflows, lower risk aversion in BTC derivatives, and the likelihood of central bank liquidity injections. However, stagnant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) and the lack of increase in holdings by companies that use Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset have contributed to the cautious sentiment.
Trump’s Tax Cut Plans and Their Impact on Scarce Assets
President Donald Trump’s plans to significantly cut income taxes have led to an increase in investor risk appetite, as government debt is expected to remain under strong upward pressure. This environment typically supports scarce assets, with gold gaining 3.8% for the week and silver rising to a new all-time high. Robert Kiyosaki’s bullish stance on Bitcoin and gold, citing cash shortages as a cause for the crash, has also contributed to the positive sentiment.
Artificial intelligence concerns have eased after Google’s custom TPU chip enabled Gemini to achieve excellence in coding, math, science, and multimodal reasoning. The breakthrough has boosted investor confidence, as the technology uses far less energy than GPU-based processing. For more information on the current market trends and analysis, visit Cointelegraph.
