Bitcoin Price Recovery on the Horizon: Analysis of Network Value and Market Trends
Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a downtrend since early October, with its price falling below its network value, which could indicate a possible recovery in 2026. According to economist Timothy Peterson, this phenomenon has historically preceded positive one-year returns. In this article, we will delve into the key factors that suggest a potential recovery in Bitcoin’s price, including its network value, spot market activity, and institutional buying trends.
The Bitcoin price has fallen 31.4% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. This decline has caused the BTC price to fall below its network value (Metcalfe) for the first time in two years. The Metcalfe value is a theoretical fair price derived from Metcalfe’s law, which states that the BTC price increases in correlation with the growth of active addresses and transactions, i.e., network value.
Network Value and Its Implications
The divergence between the Bitcoin price and its network value signals that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its growing network, often following speculative excess. According to Peterson, “The Price to Metcalfe value has been a good indicator of future performance. Any day the price is below the Metcalfe value, the performance a year later is positive 96% of the time.” This is evident in the historical data, where the BTC/USD currency pair fell below its fair value in 2019 and 2020, and the price recovered significantly in the following months.
Source: Timothy Peterson
The chances of a Bitcoin recovery appear to be good as network growth is intact, as evidenced by a sharp increase in the number of investors holding BTC for more than six months. Additional data from Nansen shows that the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network increased 15% to 3.06 million over the past seven days, an optimistic sign of adoption and utility.
Source: Nansen
Spot Market Activity and Institutional Buying
Spot market data also supports the case for a BTC recovery. According to data from Glassnode, spot CVD (cumulative volume delta, a metric that measures the difference between buying and selling volume over time) fell from -$106.6 million to $29 million over the last week. This signals “a stronger flow of buyers and a shift towards improving sentiment,” the on-chain data provider said in its latest Weekly Market Impulse report.
Source: Glassnode
Looking ahead to 2026, a convergence of factors, including continued institutional buying and macroeconomic tailwinds such as Fed easing, could push BTC back above the Metcalfe value trendline by mid-year and aim for new all-time highs. For more information, visit https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-valuation-metric-projects-96-chance-btc-price-recovery-2026
