Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has grown over the past five years into what it describes as “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin treasury company.” As of early December 2025, it held nearly 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), which is more than 3% of the 21 million holdings and by far the largest stack owned by a public company. For many traditional investors, Strategy stock has become a kind of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of buying BTC directly, they chose the stock because the company is raising capital and converting it into Bitcoin.
The current debate stems from CEO Phong Le’s recent comments that a Bitcoin sale would be possible under very specific conditions. Headlines often focus on the word “sell,” but the company portrays this as risk management for extreme stress rather than a change to its long-term Bitcoin thesis. This article examines how the plan works and what might trigger sales to help readers interpret future news without panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This guide is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Did you know? Recent estimates suggest that institutions now own nearly 20% of all mined Bitcoins. Strategy’s Bitcoin engine actually works by raising capital in traditional markets through common stock at-the-market programs, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock such as STRK and STRF, and occasional convertible notes. The company uses much of that capital to buy more Bitcoin, which it considers its primary government reserve. It tracks a range of metrics to assess whether this remains sustainable and profitable for shareholders.
Two of these metrics are important here: Bitcoin per share (BPS): How much BTC is effectively behind each fully diluted stock? Strategy publishes this as a Key Performance Indicator. Market capitalization to net asset value (mNAV): The ratio between Strategy’s total market value and the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. When mNAV is above 1, the stock trades at a premium to its BTC. If the company trades at a healthy premium, it can raise new shares or preferred stock with less dilution and further grow its Bitcoin stack.
The new element is a clearly defined kill switch for this model. In recent interviews, Le explained that Strategy would only consider selling some Bitcoins if two conditions were met at the same time: The mNAV falls below 1, meaning the company’s market capitalization falls at or below the value of the Bitcoins it holds. Access to fresh capital dries up – e.g. if investors are no longer willing to buy equity or preferred shares at reasonable conditions. He described selling BTC in this scenario as a “last resort” to meet obligations such as preferred dividends, rather than a permanent plan to sell off the treasury.
Several moving parts would have to line up before the “last resort” switch is even considered. Macro and Bitcoin price: Bitcoin has already fallen sharply from its October all-time high of around $126,000 to the mid-$80,000s, a decline of around 30%. Deeper or longer drawdowns reduce the value of Strategy’s BTC stack while also tending to put pressure on the stock. Stock performance and mNAV: Strategy’s market cap premium to its Bitcoin has already narrowed after the stock fell 30-60% from previous highs.
In mid-November, the company briefly traded near or even below the spot value of its holdings, suggesting an mNAV close to 1. Funding conditions: The deal is based on the ability to issue new common stock and perpetual preferred stock through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If these offers slowed down significantly or if investors demanded significantly higher returns, that would be a sign of stress on the financing side. Internal commitments: The strategy has significant annual commitments in the form of preferred dividends and debt service.
Analysts put preferred dividend obligations at hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Management still describes itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator and the above scenarios describe a highly stressed environment. Did you know? On-chain forensics suggest that 3 to 4 million BTC are likely lost forever in dead wallets, meaning a significant portion of the supply will never return to the market. Given that Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, any move from “never sell” to “might sell under stress” naturally attracts traders’ attention.
However, context is important: Market size: The daily spot and derivatives volume in Bitcoin regularly amounts to tens of billions of dollars. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded billions of dollars in inflows and outflows in a day. A controlled sale of a fraction of Strategy’s holdings, even if sensible, would enter a very large and liquid market. Expected scope and pace: Based on Le’s own comments, any sale in a stressed scenario would be targeted and partial, aimed at meeting obligations or maintaining capital structure, rather than exiting Bitcoin.
Prices in advance: Markets often begin to consider these possibilities as soon as they are revealed. The recent decline in both BTC and Strategy stocks, as well as the mNAV debate, are an example of this process. It is essential to note that a conditional last resort selling framework is not the same as announcing that large BTC sales are imminent. Did you know? In the third quarter of 2025, the average daily crypto spot trading volume was approximately $155 billion, and another $14 billion in notional crypto derivatives were traded daily on the CME alone.
For readers who want to follow this story without reacting to every headline or meme, several observable indicators can help readers understand the situation more clearly: Start with primary sources. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements show new capital increases and updated Bitcoin holdings. Strategy’s press releases and Bitcoin Purchases page summarize recent purchases and total holdings. Check out the core metrics.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements show new capital increases and updated Bitcoin holdings. Strategy’s press releases and Bitcoin Purchases page summarize recent purchases and total holdings. Social media activity often reflects sentiment rather than data. Green Dot posts, laser-eye memes and doomsday threads can be helpful in reading the mood, but it’s worth checking any claims of forced sales or bankruptcy against files and numbers.
Note: Financial situation, time horizon and risk tolerance vary from person to person. This information is general in nature and should not be interpreted as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Readers should consider consulting a qualified financial professional for advice appropriate to their circumstances. This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision. For more information, visit https://cointelegraph.com/news/a-simple-breakdown-of-strategy-s-bitcoin-plan-and-what-could-shape-future-sales?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss_category_analysis&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
