HYPE Price Prediction: Understanding the Current Market Trends
Hyperliquid’s HYPE price is currently trading around $32, following a failed breakout attempt. The price has been influenced by leverage and weak spot volume, which skews the risk towards a deeper downtrend. According to recent data, HYPE has experienced a decline of over 7% in the past 24 hours and 11% on a weekly basis, significantly below its peak of $59.
Market Analysis and Technicals
A closer examination of the market reveals shrinking cash volume and high open interest in derivatives, indicating a leveraged and fragile market environment. Technical analysis shows lower highs and fading momentum, with nearby supports in the lower $30s and upper $20s at risk. The daily RSI remains in the high 40s, suggesting an indecisive market where neither side has clear control.
Spot trades on major trading venues are concentrated in the low to mid-$30s, resulting in a fully diluted multi-billion dollar valuation with daily volume in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Despite bullish claims, the market structure still points to a clear uptrend, with the recent release of supply into circulation and decreasing trading activity.
Supply Overhang and Flows
A significant event occurred near November 29th, where approximately 9.9 million HYPE, representing 2.6% of the circulating supply, entered the float for insiders and contributors. Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund has spent over $600 million on buybacks this year, typically absorbing a few million dollars of tokens per day. However, this steady demand seems small compared to the one-time release of this size, leaving the market jittery and exposed if any of this supply meets the bidding.
In derivatives, spot and futures volumes have decreased by about a third from recent highs, and open interest has fallen by a few points. This mix can often create sudden air pockets once the price starts moving. The separation in market sentiment is evident on social media, with one camp arguing that HYPE is just slow to react to the rest of the market, while another camp attributes the recent underperformance to a broader shift towards lower risk in majors and high-beta names.
Mood on Social Media and Trader Activity
A notable example of trader activity is the investment of $30 million in HYPE by whale trader 0xBd8c, with a margin of $10 million in his account. The investment has already risen by $2.5 million, with a liquidation price of $22.5 HYPE. The question remains whether he will cash out or let it run. The chart refuses to choose a side for now, with HYPE still moving lower within a descending channel that has capped rallies since late summer.
A decisive daily close below the $33-$35 zone would quickly bring the $28-$30 area into focus as a likely liquidity pocket and stop cluster. On the other hand, a clean recapture and maintenance of the $36-$37 “distribution” area would suggest that sellers are finally running out of inventory, opening up space again towards $40 and above by year’s end, but only if accompanied by larger inflows, healthier funding, and firmer open interest.
Taking the opportunities into account, the short-term trend is still trending slightly downwards. The new supply overhang and weaker speculative participation make a retest of the high $20s the base case, with a lower probability path where HYPE pushes back through $37 as macro risk stabilizes and relief fund supply is strong enough to chew through the remnants of unlocked supply.
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