Barclays Predicts a Challenging Year for Crypto in 2026
Barclays has issued a cautious outlook for the cryptocurrency sector in 2026, projecting declining trading activity and limited catalysts for growth, according to a year-end research report from the bank. The financial institution stated that digital asset exchanges face challenges as retail participation weakens and spot trading volumes decrease. 
The bank characterized 2026 as a transitional period for the industry, marking a departure from the volatile boom-and-bust cycles that have defined crypto markets in recent years.
Declining Retail Participation and Spot Volumes
Retail-focused platforms, including Coinbase and Robinhood, are experiencing pressure from declining spot trading volumes, which represent a critical revenue source for exchanges, according to the report. The bank noted that previous bull cycles were fueled by heightened volatility and speculative demand that drove surges in retail trading. That dynamic has weakened significantly, with fewer active traders participating in spot markets and reduced price action to attract new entrants, according to the analysis. Barclays stated that “spot crypto trading volumes appear to be trending towards a down-year in FY26, and it is not clear to us what might reverse this trend.”
Regulatory Progress and Tokenization
The report identified potential regulatory progress in the United States as a possible positive factor. Barclays highlighted the proposed CLARITY Act, legislation aimed at defining whether digital assets fall under securities or commodities law and clarifying oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The bank stated that clearer regulatory rules could encourage compliant product launches, particularly in tokenized assets, but cautioned that benefits would likely emerge gradually rather than triggering immediate market activity. Tokenization continues to attract interest from crypto-native companies and traditional financial institutions, with firms including BlackRock and Robinhood launching pilot programs and early-stage offerings tied to tokenized assets.
Coinbase and the Future of Crypto Exchanges
Coinbase received significant attention in the Barclays analysis due to its position as a major U.S. crypto exchange. The company is expanding into derivatives trading, tokenized equities, and other initiatives, alongside recent acquisitions aimed at revenue diversification, according to the report. Barclays revised its price target for Coinbase shares downward, citing shrinking spot volumes and rising operating costs despite longer-term strategic investments. The bank characterized 2026 as a transitional year for the cryptocurrency sector, with companies focusing on long-term investments in compliance, infrastructure, and tokenized finance amid declining retail activity and limited near-term growth drivers.
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