Bitcoin’s 2025 Supercycle Ends in Bear Season: What Happened and What’s Next?
Bitcoin’s 2025 has been hailed as the year of the “supercycle,” driven by record-breaking institutional access and a friendlier political backdrop from Washington. However, the year is ending on a different note, with the world’s largest digital asset struggling with a performance issue. The rally has petered out, spot prices are fluctuating, and retail participation has declined, giving way to a correction.
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin is now in a “bear season,” driven by a structural decline in demand for the cryptocurrency at current levels. This is a significant shift from the bull narrative that began to unravel in the first months of 2025, even as prices rose to record levels.
The Bear Market: A Closer Look
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has described 2025 as a bear market in disguise, arguing that Bitcoin has been in “bear season” since February, despite rising to record levels. According to Horsley, “As we look back to 2025, we see that there has been a bear market since February – masked by the relentless supply of DATs and Bitcoin Treasuries.” US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from net accumulation to net withdrawals in the fourth quarter of 2025, with total holdings declining by approximately 24,000 BTC.
Major buyers, such as Bitcoin financial firms, have slowed or paused their purchases, and the market is now trading more heavily on its underlying demand profile. The price is adjusting to a world where the simple, mechanical bid is no longer there to absorb any decline. CryptoQuant’s data shows that while Bitcoin’s price remained stable throughout the year, reaching a high of nearly $125,000 in October, demand growth has fallen below its trend line since the beginning of October.
Is the Bitcoin Halving Thesis Dead?
The persistence of selling pressure, occurring deep into the window in which the 2024 halving should deliver “only bullish momentum,” has forced a fundamental rethink of the market engine. CryptoQuant notes that “The current downturn underscores that Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is primarily driven by expansions and declines in demand growth, not the halving event itself or past price performance.” Two contradictory roadmaps for 2026 have emerged, dividing the market’s top strategists into opposing camps: those mindful of liquidity and those mindful of time.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argues that the 4-year cycle is never about the halving, but rather a derivative of the “national debt refinancing cycle.” In contrast, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, sees a darker timeline dictated by the exhaustion of time, suggesting that Bitcoin may have completed another halving phase of the 4-year cycle, both in price and timing.
What Needs to Change to End the Bear Market?
To end the bear market, Bitcoin needs structural repairs, rather than a new narrative. Analysts point to four specific changes that would signal a credible exit from bear territory: ETF flows need to stabilize, demand growth must recapture trend, financing rates need to recover, and price must be reclaimed. Until these signals turn green, Bitcoin will remain caught in the crossfire of a maturing market.
For more information, read the full article on CryptoSlate: https://cryptoslate.com/heres-why-bitcoin-is-in-bear-season-and-what-has-to-change-for-it-to-end/
