Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook: A 10-Year Grind Upward
According to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, Bitcoin is likely to deliver steady gains over the next decade, but investors should not expect the kind of explosive year-on-year rallies seen in earlier cycles. Hougan described Bitcoin’s outlook as a prolonged upward trend marked by lower volatility and more measured returns. “I think we’re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns,” he said. “It’s not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some up and down.”
Key Takeaways and Market Analysis
Hougan remains bullish on 2026, citing ongoing institutional buying despite recent price weakness. Some analysts warn Bitcoin could still face deeper downside if the cycle has peaked. ReserveOne chief investment officer Sebastian Beau said the drop has revived questions about whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle remains intact. “All-time highs were 125,000… we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly,” Beau said, calling the move painful for investors.
Steady Returns and Lower Volatility
Hougan believes Bitcoin’s downside has been cushioned by what he described as “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.” Unlike previous cycles that saw drawdowns of 60% or more, Bitcoin’s current pullback has been comparatively shallow, a sign that long-term capital is providing support. Not all analysts share Hougan’s optimism. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could slide to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, highlighting ongoing risks tied to macro conditions and market structure.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Hougan also downplayed expectations that US politics will drive the next leg higher. While Bitcoin rallied to fresh highs earlier in 2025 following Donald Trump’s inauguration, Hougan said the administration is unlikely to unlock significant new upside. According to Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations rather than headline economic data.
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