BlackRock’s 2026 Thematic Outlook: Ethereum at the Center of Tokenization
BlackRock’s 2026 Thematic Outlook has put Ethereum at the forefront of its tokenization thesis, sparking debate about the network’s potential role as a “toll road” for tokenized assets. According to the report, over 65% of tokenized assets are on Ethereum, positioning the network as a key infrastructure player in the emerging tokenization landscape.
The framework presented by BlackRock pushes Ethereum into an infrastructure role rather than a directional call to ETH, highlighting the network’s potential as a base layer for tokenized assets. However, the “toll road” model depends on various factors, including where issuance, settlement, and fee payment occur as real-world assets and tokenized cash move on-chain.
Ethereum’s Share of Tokenized Assets: A Moving Target
A market check at the end of January reveals that Ethereum’s market share in tokenized assets is around 59.84%, with a total value of approximately $12.8 billion, according to RWA.xyz’s directory view. This discrepancy from BlackRock’s reported 65%+ value highlights the dynamic nature of the tokenization landscape and the need for ongoing monitoring.
The spread between these values and BlackRock’s January 5 numbers leaves room for stock drift, which may occur as output expands to other chains and reporting windows change. This underscores the importance of considering multiple data points and sources when evaluating the growth of tokenized assets on Ethereum.
Tokenization and the Role of Rollups
L2BEAT’s rollup summary shows large value pools already “backed” by leading Ethereum rollups, including Arbitrum One, Base, and OP Mainnet. This architecture can preserve Ethereum’s settlement role while shifting where users pay fees on a daily basis, complicating the “toll road” thesis and highlighting the need for a nuanced understanding of the tokenization landscape.
The economics of rollup execution and fee amounts vary depending on the design, and this difference is crucial for fee collection even if Ethereum remains the underlying security layer. Tokenized cash can become a key throughput driver in tokenization portfolios, and it comes with clearer scenario calculation, as estimated by Citi’s stablecoin report.
Stablecoin “Noise” and Multi-Chain Products
Visa has argued that stablecoin transfer volumes contain “noise,” with the company citing a significant decrease in volume after halting inorganic activity. BlackRock’s tokenization slide references the same concept of bot removal, tying its narrative to a narrower definition of economic use. This highlights the importance of distinguishing between organic and inorganic activity in the tokenization space.
Multi-chain distribution is already appearing in institutional product design, complicating any linear “tokenization equals ETH demand” argument. BlackRock’s tokenized fund BUIDL is available on seven blockchains, with cross-chain interoperability enabled by Wormhole, supporting the survival path for non-Ethereum chains as distribution and location-specific supply layers.
The Single Ledger Debate and Institutional Tokenization
A separate part of the debate focused on the question of whether institutional tokenization ends in a shared ledger. Remarks from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and World Economic Forum materials released this month support broader claims about the benefits of tokenization, including fractionalization and faster settlements. However, the WEF fails to validate the literal “single blockchain” language in its 2026 digital asset outlook and tokenization explainer video.
For Ethereum’s decentralization thesis, the investable tension is whether a base layer can remain neutral when tokenization is tied to large issuers and regulated trading venues. Claims to “transparency” depend on credible resistance to unilateral change and on the finality of regulation adopted by the downstream layers.
Today, L2BEAT’s Stage framework and value-preserved data show that rollups are scaling under Ethereum’s security umbrella, while BUIDL’s multi-chain rollout shows that large issuers are also reducing platform concentration risk. BlackRock’s “toll road” decline set an outdated market share marker of 65%, and RWA dashboards and multi-chain product releases in late January showed that the share, settlement location, and measurement of organic usage will be critical across the RWA sector in the near future.
Read more about BlackRock’s tokenization thesis and the role of Ethereum in the emerging tokenization landscape at https://cryptoslate.com/blackrock-puts-ethereum-at-tokenizations-center-but-one-quiet-metric-could-wreck-the-toll-road-bet/
