Bitcoin and Gold: A Tale of Two Assets in 2026
As we delve into the financial landscape of 2026, two assets stand out for their vastly different performances: Bitcoin (BTC) and gold. While gold has seen a remarkable 153% increase since the start of 2024, Bitcoin has experienced a decline of around 30% over the same period. This divergence has sparked interest among analysts, who point to several key factors influencing the market trends of these two assets.
One analyst notes that the gap between Bitcoin and gold coincides with steady growth in the global money supply, a waning appetite for risky tech stocks, and falling crypto exchange holdings. These changes collectively impact how both assets are traded in the market, reflecting shifting investor sentiments and preferences.
Rising Liquidity and Speculation on Tech Stocks Fail to Boost Bitcoin
In a recent post on Timmer, gold was described as a pure “hard money” asset that closely tracks the growth of the global money supply. Bitcoin, on the other hand, follows the growth of the global money supply over time, as shown by the steady increase in the global money supply M2. However, Bitcoin’s strongest rallies have occurred when liquidity growth coincided with rising software and software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks, indicators of speculative appetite.
Historical data reveals that in 2017-2018 and again in 2020-2021, software stocks posted significant year-over-year gains, and the Bitcoin price rose sharply during these periods. Conversely, in 2022, when software stocks fell, Bitcoin saw a sharp decline, even as the money supply remained high. This suggests that while money supply growth supports the long-term trend, shifts in speculation in the technology sector tend to amplify or dampen Bitcoin price fluctuations, indicating that Bitcoin has hard money risk and high beta characteristics.
Gold Attracts Demand on Crypto Exchanges
The demand for crypto-native platforms has also shifted towards gold-pegged products. The launch of 24-hour, 7-day gold futures trading on Binance in early January saw the cumulative volume of this product approaching $35 billion, with over $4 billion recorded on the most active day. According to crypto analyst Darkfost, the weekly volume averages about $4.7 billion.
Activity accelerated immediately after gold posted a two-day correction of over 20%, highlighting the demand for tokenized exposure to traditional hard assets within crypto venues. Meanwhile, data from CryptoQuant shows that the total value of Binance’s portfolio for BTC, ETH, XRP, and the main stablecoins ERC20 and TRC20 has fallen to about $102 billion, the lowest value since April 2025.
The decline in Binance’s portfolio value reflects lower asset prices and user withdrawals into self-custody amid declining volatility. For Bitcoin, this suggests reduced capital on exchanges, which could indicate cautious positioning by traders and low short-term liquidity.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision. For more detailed analysis and market insights, visit Cointelegraph.
