XRP, a popular cryptocurrency, has been exhibiting an intriguing trend in recent times. Despite experiencing a period of weak price action, the altcoin has shown increasing risk-adjusted returns, accompanied by a surge in whale flows. This development has sparked interest among crypto analysts and investors, who are now closely monitoring the situation to determine whether XRP’s price will follow suit. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of return per unit of risk, has turned slightly positive, indicating that current returns outweigh risk.
A closer examination of the data reveals that the 30-day average return of 0.00063 supports this positive shift, with the Sharpe ratio standing at 0.0267. Furthermore, on-chain data suggests that whales have been steadily accumulating XRP over the past month, indicating demand despite the sluggish price action. This accumulation phase has been ongoing since February 27, marking the longest such phase since April-July 2025. The previous accumulation phase in the second quarter of 2025 saw XRP expand to its all-time high of $3.65 on July 18, 2025.
XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns and Whale Accumulation
Crypto analyst Arab Chain noted that the recent improvement in the Sharpe Ratio is accompanied by a pick-up in trading activity, indicating better long-term returns for XRP holders. The analyst explained that the ratio indicates a gradual positive rebalancing, which could limit any further downside for the altcoin. However, the analyst also cautioned that if the indicator falls back into negative territory, it could signal a return of volatility and weakening momentum. The XRP Sharpe Ratio on Binance, as shown in the image below, supports this narrative.
The 30-day moving average of XRP whale flows has increased to $9 million per day, with positive inflows continuing since February 27. This sustained accumulation phase has led to a steady increase in XRP’s price, with the altcoin potentially poised for further growth. The XRP Whale Flows at 30-Day Moving Average (30-DMA), as illustrated in the image below, demonstrate this trend.
Fragile Futures Market and Open Interest
Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that the 24-hour open interest change reached 14.8% on March 26, the highest level since March 4, indicating renewed trader participation. This increase in activity also coincides with repeated pressure on the long side, with liquidation events above $2.5 million on March 18, followed by similar spikes of $2.45 million on March 21 and $2.15 on March 26. The Change in XRP open interest on Binance, as shown in the image below, highlights this fragile market structure.
These moves demonstrate that aggressive long positioning is still being abandoned during short-term volatility. Although futures activity has increased, the frequent liquidation signals are creating an unstable market with traders facing constant resets. The technical structure suggests a clear bearish bias, with XRP reversing its bullish ascending triangle pattern and down 13.63% over the past 10 days. If the current market structure holds, the altcoin could retest support levels near internal liquidity at $1.27 and yearly lows at $1.11 in the coming weeks. The XRP/USDT chart, as illustrated below, shows this trend.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision. For more information on XRP’s risk-reward improvements and whale accumulation, visit Cointelegraph.
