Wintermute, a prominent market maker, has faced scrutiny for its recent activities in the Bitcoin market. Specifically, the company has been accused of dumping Bitcoin on Binance during a period of low liquidity on New Year’s Eve and then attempting to accumulate coins through urgent purchases ahead of the Fed’s January 2 announcement. To better understand these allegations, it is essential to examine the on-chain data and blockchain transaction records.
Understanding the Allegations
The claims against Wintermute suggest a coordinated manipulation of the Bitcoin market, where the company sold Bitcoin during a weak phase and then bought it back at a cheaper price. However, on-chain data only supports the first accusation, which involves the dumping of Bitcoin on Binance. The evidence comes from blockchain transaction records, which show the movement of Bitcoin between Wintermute’s addresses and Binance’s hot wallets.
On-Chain Data Analysis
On December 31, 2025, Wintermute transferred 1,518.6 BTC to Binance, resulting in a net deposit of 1,213 BTC, worth approximately $107 million at the time. The timing of these transactions is notable, as they occurred during periods of low liquidity, with the largest transfers happening at 06:43 UTC and 18:10 UTC. Bitcoin prices fell from $92,000 on December 30 to below $90,000 on December 31, with Wintermute’s largest deposits occurring above the intraday low.
Further analysis of the on-chain data reveals that Wintermute deposited more Bitcoin on Binance than it withdrew for three consecutive days, with January 2 recording the highest two-way flow. On January 1, 2026, Wintermute transferred another 1,559.2 BTC to Binance, resulting in a net deposit of 624 BTC, approximately $55 million. The pattern continued on January 2, with 1,631.7 BTC deposited and 814.4 BTC withdrawn, leaving a net 817 BTC on the exchange.
Accumulation Thesis Refuted
The second allegation against Wintermute, which involves the urgent accumulation of Bitcoin on January 2, is not supported by the on-chain data. On January 2, Wintermute received 2,091.8 BTC from external counterparties and sent 2,509.7 BTC, resulting in a net outflow of 418 BTC. This represents a net distribution, rather than accumulation, and is consistent with active market making.
The hourly breakdown of Wintermute’s transactions on January 2 shows a classic two-way market making pattern, with net inflows during the early morning sessions and net outflows concentrated at 10:00, 15:00, and 17:00 UTC. The cumulative position showed a sawtooth pattern, consisting of alternating buying and selling, which ended well below zero.
Limitations of On-Chain Data
While on-chain data provides valuable insights into Wintermute’s activities, it is essential to acknowledge its limitations. The data only captures addresses marked as Wintermute or specific exchanges, and activity with unmarked wallets is not visible. Additionally, on-chain transfers timestamp custody changes, not transactions, and the analysis excludes activity on other networks and synthetic BTC products.
Within these limitations, the data establishes clear facts. Wintermute deposited significant Bitcoins into Binance during a period of low liquidity at the end of the year, with net deposits continuing through January 2nd. This directional flow corresponds to selling pressure during vulnerable market conditions. However, the purchase allegation from January 2nd is not supported in the same documents, and Wintermute’s activity on that day is consistent with active market making.
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