Bitcoin’s Uptrend and the Looming Bear Market
According to Tony Severino, a market analyst at fintech platform YouHodler, Bitcoin is still in an uptrend, but a bear market may be on the horizon. Severino notes that overhead resistance is stacked, and Bitcoin could try to reclaim the 50-week moving average, which sits at around $102,000. However, $100,000 will act as a key psychological barrier, making it an ideal zone for a bull trap.
A bearish high timeframe signal has just confirmed in Bitcoin, which has never missed a bull market or bear market and has no false signals. The last time it confirmed, Bitcoin fell 75% over the next 365 days before reaching a bottom. Severino argues that if bulls are able to reclaim $100,000 and hold the support line for weeks to months, any chance of a bear market will likely be cancelled.
A Bear Is Here
Q1 2026 will be critical, and Severino argues that it will show us the way for the rest of the year. Given the high timeframe momentum and four-year-cycle timing and dynamics, there is a higher probability that Bitcoin is entering a bear market. Therefore, it’s likely that BTC will fail to reclaim $100,000, indicating that the bull market is indeed over.
To confirm a downtrend and change into a bear market, the coin would need to confirm a lower low. Therefore, $74,000 becomes a critical support zone that bulls must defend to keep BTC bullish. Falling below this zone would confirm the bear market, and the next downside target would sit around $53,000.
Severino discussed the key technical indicators he’s paying attention to, which are all related to momentum. The six-week LMACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence) confirmed a bearish crossover, which takes 200-365 days on average between the signal and a bottom, as well as up to 860 days between a bearish and a bullish crossover.
Four-Year-Cycle Under Microscope
Severino notes that 2026 will be Bitcoin’s most decisive year yet. The analyst argues that Bitcoin will prove the four-year-cycle remains with a bear market, or break the cyclical pattern with a renewed bull run. The 2025 yearly candlestick will close as a Doji, which is typically a pause in a trend, and either a reversal or strong continuation will follow it.
Source: Tradingview
Ethereum Could Be The Decision Maker
Ethereum remains relatively weak compared to Bitcoin, but Severino says this is about to change dramatically. The ETHBTC pair shows a reversal, and ETH could be outperforming BTC in the longer term. However, Severino cautions that if the cryptocurrency market enters a downtrend and bear market, this outperformance could be associated with ETHUSD holding better than BTCUSD, rather than ETHUSD growing faster than BTCUSD.
Source: Tradingview
Finally, the ETH/BTC ratio may show a potential capital rotation into Ethereum. Several events could dampen BTC and raise ETH, including a BTC-related catalyst pushing sentiment down, or ETH being far more oversold than BTC. Therefore, “if Ethereum can revitalize crypto market sentiment, it may finally create the perfect storm situation for an unexpected altcoin season,” Severino concludes.
Read the original article at https://cryptonews.com/news/a-storm-is-coming-and-bear-may-follow-expert-says/
