Circle’s 20% Gain Hides a Toxic Trend for Crypto Companies
When Circle’s shares opened on the New York Stock Exchange in June at $69, more than double the $31 price, it looked like confirmation that investors were willing to pay for a regulated stablecoin issuer with real-world revenue, viewing USDC rails as financial infrastructure rather than speculative crypto exposure. Six months later, Circle is trading at $82.58, up nearly 20% from its opening print, confirming the thesis.
However, the rest of the 2025 IPO class told a different story. eToro, which started at $69.69, is now at $35.85, down 48.6%. The uptrend broke from $90 to $43.20, a loss of 52%. Gemini, the Winklevoss-backed exchange that went public at $37.01, lost 70% of its value to trade at $11.07 in mid-December. Even Figment, the betting company, which rose 11.2% to $40.04, barely managed to beat its launch price of $36.
Given Bitcoin’s 8.5% year-to-date decline to $85,620, the cohort’s performance reads less like a triumph for crypto stocks and more like a live stress test of how much risk investors can tolerate on top of the asset itself. This spread is important because 2025 should be the year crypto stocks come out. Circle’s multi-billion dollar listing, HashKey’s 400x oversubscribed Hong Kong debut, and a pipeline filled with Kraken, Consensys, and others marked the year as evidence that crypto infrastructure can dominate Wall Street multiples.
The Strategic Divide: Infrastructure vs. Beta
Circle’s outperformance over the rest of the cohort is no coincidence of timing. The company generates revenue from USDC reserves by essentially arbitrating the spread between Treasury yields and the zero interest rates it pays stablecoin holders. This model works regardless of whether Bitcoin is trading at $100,000 or $50,000, insulating Circle from the pure directional bet that defines exchanges like Gemini or trading platforms like eToro.
When crypto spot volumes collapse, these companies immediately lose fees. Circle continues to earn. Figment’s modest 11% increase reflects similar logic. Stake infrastructure depends on the adoption of the proof-of-stake network and not on speculative trading activities. As long as Ethereum, Solana, and other PoS chains continue to validate blocks, Figment will collect its share.
2025 was a Test Run, Not a Victory Lap
Circle and Figment have proven that real companies can go public and retain their value. Gemini, eToro, and Bullish have proven that investors will no longer blindly pursue crypto beta in the form of stocks. This reassessment occurred quickly. In late November, Bloomberg Law noted that new U.S. IPOs posted slightly negative returns in the fourth quarter, even as the S&P posted gains, with crypto IPOs “among the biggest losses” of the quarterly decline.
The message was clear: public investors will continue to buy crypto risks, but only at the right price and with visible returns. The “everything with a blockchain” phase ended somewhere between Circle’s debut in June and Gemini’s collapse in December. Consensys’ addition to the queue signals confidence that 2026 remains achievable, but also that the founders know the opportunity won’t last forever.
What the Risk Appetite Scorecard Signals in 2026
The underperformance of the 2025 IPO cohort compared to Bitcoin suggests that equity investors view these companies as leveraged, fee-driven proxies for the cycle rather than long-term growth stories. This raises the bar for 2026. Companies looking to go public must demonstrate cash generation that can survive a flat or declining market, not just hockey-stick forecasts that assume continued retail euphoria.
However, Circle’s continued gains indicate continued demand for regulated crypto infrastructure. Investors want to continue to have access to stablecoin rails, tokenization platforms, and custody providers, companies where regulation and returns are transparent. This appetite didn’t disappear when Bitcoin collapsed, it just became more selective.
Nasdaq expects 2026 listings to be worth more than $1 billion, with U.S. IPO proceeds increasing about 80% in 2025 compared to 2024. Falling interest rates, high valuations, and general market sentiment support this assessment. But the list of winners remains narrow. A tech capital markets analysis of 2025 IPO winners found that AI and crypto names like CoreWeave and Circle dominated, and there were very few breakthroughs outside of these themes.
To compete for this capital, any new crypto listing must fit into a clear structural narrative, such as stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets, on-chain AI integration, or institutional custody. A16z’s “State of Crypto 2025” portrays the year as one of institutional adoption, with Circle’s IPO marking the moment stablecoin issuers became mainstream financial institutions.
For more information, visit https://cryptoslate.com/circles-20-gain-hides-a-toxic-trend-that-suggests-the-ipo-window-is-slamming-shut-for-most-crypto-companies/
