Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge Due to Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has termed the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program as “QE in disguise,” suggesting that the renewed liquidity it brings will drive Bitcoin prices higher. According to Hayes, this program functions similarly to quantitative easing, albeit through indirect mechanisms, and he expects it to have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.
Understanding the RMP Program and Its Implications
The RMP program, introduced by the Fed at the December 10 FOMC meeting, involves the purchase of short-term Treasury bills from money market funds, which then redeploy the proceeds into longer-dated Treasuries or repo markets. This structure indirectly finances government spending without the political costs associated with formally announcing quantitative easing. Hayes’ analysis indicates that while RMP purchases are technically smaller in absolute magnitude than past QE programs, the structural mechanism creates equivalent monetary expansion.
Bitcoin Price Trajectory Through 2026
Hayes forecasts a multi-phase Bitcoin price trajectory, with the cryptocurrency expected to trade between $80,000 and $100,000 from December 2025 through January 2026. This range is driven by the persistent belief that RMP differs from quantitative easing and uncertainty about whether the program will continue beyond its April 2026 scheduled end. Once markets recognize RMP’s true quantitative easing nature, Hayes expects a quick acceleration, with Bitcoin retaking $124,000 and moving toward $200,000 in early-to-mid 2026.
Long-Term Forecast and Market Expectations
Hayes anticipates that the recognition of RMP’s asset price inflation capability will peak in March 2026, leading to a decline and the formation of a local bottom “well above $124,000.” However, this pullback is expected to be temporary and strategic rather than a cycle top. In late November, Hayes expanded his long-term forecast, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of 2026. For more information, read the original article on Crypto.News.
