Arthur Hayes’ Bold Prediction: Bitcoin to Reach $3.4 Million by 2028
The Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes, has made a striking forecast for Bitcoin, predicting that the asset could soar to $3.4 million within the next three years. This bold prediction is based on the possibility of the US government’s aggressive monetary expansion through earnings control, particularly if Donald Trump’s administration is re-elected.
Hayes emphasized that the US fiscal pressure is expected to intensify, with annual deficits of around $2 trillion anticipated by 2028. To finance these deficits and refinance maturing debt, the US Treasury may need to issue over $15 trillion in new debt during this period. Hayes expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to become the primary buyer of these debts, similar to its actions during the COVID-19 crisis, when it purchased around 40% of US government loans to stabilize the markets.
Hayes’ Rationale Behind the Prediction
According to Hayes, the Fed may need to buy 50% or more of the new debt issuances, as foreign central banks become less willing to finance US obligations. This significant increase in debt monetization could lead to substantial credit growth, which Hayes believes will have a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin. He estimates that every trillion dollars of credit growth could bring the price of Bitcoin closer to the multimillion-dollar range, with a predicted slope of 0.19 for BTC price increase per dollar credit growth.
While Hayes’ prediction of $3.4 million may seem ambitious, he acknowledges that the actual price may not reach this level. Instead, he emphasizes that the direction of the trend is more important than precision. His goal is to identify the correct direction of travel and bet on the fastest horse, provided that Trump is serious about printing trillions of dollars to achieve his political goals.
Current Market Situation and Implications
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $112,927, about 9% below its all-time high of $124,167 in August. Hayes’ prediction, if realized, would represent a significant increase in the value of Bitcoin. While his forecast is based on specific economic and political scenarios, it highlights the potential for Bitcoin to benefit from increased monetary expansion and debt monetization.
For more information on Arthur Hayes’ prediction and the potential implications for Bitcoin, visit Cryptoslate.
