Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant decline, falling over 3.5% in the last 24 hours to trade at $104,000. This downward trend has resulted in weekly and 30-day losses of 8% and 17%, respectively. The drawdown has been accompanied by selling from long-term holders, who have offloaded more than 400,000 BTC over the past month.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sell $42 Billion in BTC
Long-term holders (LTHs), entities that hold coins for at least six months without selling, began to offload their BTC after the price hit new all-time highs above $126,000 in early October. According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, on a rolling 30-day basis, the LTH supply had decreased by a net 405,000 BTC, worth around $42.3 billion at current market prices as of Tuesday.
This represents “almost 2% of the total supply,” said crypto market commentator TFTC in response to Maartunn’s analysis, adding: “Bitcoin is in a material supply distribution phase, and the price is still holding strong above $100,000.” TFTC founder Marty Bent noted that the fact that the market can absorb this amount of sell pressure without a significant decline is a positive signal for Bitcoin.
Short-Term Holders Panic-Sell $3 Billion in BTC
Short-term holders were also under pressure, sending over 26,800 BTC (worth about $3 billion) to exchanges at a loss over the last three days. This activity highlights a familiar behavioral pattern in which short-term holders, often referred to as “weak hands,” tend to panic-sell during market dips, frequently incurring losses.
As Cointelegraph reported, short-term holders are now sitting on growing unrealized losses and are likely to continue selling if the downtrend continues. This could lead to further downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Falling Wedge Pattern Targets $72,000
The weekly chart shows the BTC/USD pair validating a falling wedge, after the price lost support from the pattern’s lower trendline at $114,550. Bulls are now fighting to keep the price above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $103,300. Other key lines of defense are the $100,000 psychological level and the 100-week SMA at $82,000.
A weekly close below this area will clear the path for BTC’s drop toward the wedge’s target at $72,000, representing a 30% decline from the current price. Bitcoin’s bearishness is preceded by a growing bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI).
Technical Analysis and Expert Insights
Using the power law model, technical analyst JDK Analysis asked veteran trader Peter Brandt to weigh in on how low Bitcoin price could go. Brandt replied that Bitcoin could bottom at “the upper green band” of the model around $60,000, adding: “I hope you are right about the top not being in yet.”
As Cointelegraph reported, crypto sentiment has plummeted into the “extreme fear” zone at 21, following Bitcoin’s drop below $104,000, with calls for a sub-$100,000 BTC price growing louder. For more information, visit the original source.
