The Bitcoin price has been range-bound, hovering between $87,000 and $89,000, as traders exercise caution ahead of a significant options expiry. With $1.85 billion in options set to expire, both spot and derivatives data indicate a lack of clear directional bets, resulting in a narrow trading range.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $88,326, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours. The price has fluctuated between $86,979 and $90,064 over the last week, with neither buyers nor sellers able to gain control. This lack of conviction is also reflected in the longer-term view, with Bitcoin ending the year 6.7% lower and remaining about 30% below its October peak of $126,080.
Market Activity and Options Expiry
Market activity has slowed down, with spot trading volume over the past 24 hours dropping to $21 billion, a decline of more than 40% from the previous day. Derivatives data tells a similar story, with trading volume in futures falling 39% to $32 billion, while open interest edged up 0.6% to $55 billion. This suggests that many traders are sitting on existing positions rather than opening fresh ones, a common setup ahead of a major expiry.
Bitcoin options with a notional value of $1.85 billion are set to expire at 8:00 a.m. UTC on Jan. 2, based on data from Deribit. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.48, and the max pain level is near $88,000. Ethereum options worth $390 million will also expire, with a max pain price of $2,950. The upcoming options expiry is likely to influence the Bitcoin price in the short term, as traders modify or sell their positions.
On-Chain Data and Technical Analysis
A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei_dent adds to the cautious tone, suggesting that Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit, which tracks how much of the circulating supply is held at a gain, is currently at 68.85%. This reading positions the market between clear bull and bear markets. In previous cycles, readings below 55% indicated deeper bear phases, while readings above 80% typically corresponded with strong bull runs.
Bitcoin’s structure is still sideways to bearish, with the general trend showing lower highs and lower lows. The price is holding in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and is still under pressure close to the middle band. This setup usually comes before a larger move, but it doesn’t tell which way it will break. The relative strength index is near 48, close to neutral, and momentum has stabilized after an oversold stretch, but buyers have yet to show strength.
Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news
Support and Resistance Levels
Support has formed in the $86,000 to $87,500 area, where the price has bounced several times. Resistance sits between $89,500 and $91,000. A firm daily close above that zone would hint at recovery, while a loss of support would put the downtrend back in focus. As the options expiry approaches, traders will be closely watching these levels to determine the next move for the Bitcoin price.
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