Bitcoin’s Recent Surge: A Closer Look at the Market Trends
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant surge, reaching its highest level in over 60 days with a 5.5% increase on Wednesday. This upward trend was preceded by $840 million in inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Monday and Tuesday. However, despite this bullish trend, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can sustain its momentum and reach $105,000 in the near term.
Nasdaq index futures (left) vs. BTC/USD (right). Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin’s rise to $97,000 contrasts with the continued weakness in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which has failed to reach the $26,000 level last seen in early November 2025. Investor sentiment remains mixed, with Bitcoin still trading 23% below its all-time high of $126,219, while gold and silver prices have hit record highs in 2026, signaling greater interest in traditional safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin 30 Day Options Delta Skew (Put Call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
According to the BTC options delta skew metric, professional traders are not yet optimistic, as put (sell) options continue to trade at a premium. The BTC options delta skew is currently at 4%, unchanged from the previous week, indicating a stable risk perception despite the rally above $96,000 on Wednesday. Traders remain skeptical about sustained gains above $100,000.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Uncertainty
When whales and market makers become bullish, the skew typically turns negative, reflecting increased demand for neutral to bullish options strategies. Instead, Bitcoin bears were caught off guard when the recent price surge resulted in $370 million in leveraged short (sell) position liquidations in two days, the highest total since October 2025.
BTC Futures 12 Hour Liquidations, USD. Source: CoinGlass
Some of the lack of optimism may be related to geopolitical tensions, including protests in Iran and potential military threats from US President Donald Trump. Investors fear that US relations with China and India could deteriorate if the proposed 25% import tariff on countries “doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran” is implemented.
Additionally, the Trump administration’s intention to seize control of Greenland has also raised concerns, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius offering help to Denmark in the event of a hostile takeover.
Yield on two-year US Treasury bonds. Source: TradingView
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.51% on Wednesday, suggesting traders are accepting lower yields in exchange for the safety of government-backed bonds. This is particularly telling given that the most recent US consumer price inflation index (CPI) was 2.7% year-on-year, above the Federal Reserve’s target.
Investor Caution and Market Volatility
Warren Buffett, chairman and former CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has warned that the lack of clarity about the future direction of artificial intelligence is worrying. As a result, Berkshire’s cash pile has risen to a record $381.7 billion, up from $170 billion a year earlier.
The Nasdaq index fell 1.6% while shares of Oracle (ORCL US) fell 5% after bondholders filed a class action lawsuit alleging the company failed to disclose the need for significant additional debt to expand its artificial intelligence infrastructure.
As uncertainty increases, traders have reduced their exposure to stocks, indicating a lower risk tolerance that is also limiting appetite for cryptocurrencies. It remains unclear whether Bitcoin has finally ended its two-month bear market, but derivatives data shows that traders remain extremely skeptical of a quick recovery towards $105,000.
For now, investors’ focus remains on the broader sociopolitical risks and whether the Federal Reserve can support economic growth without reigniting inflation. Read more about the latest market trends and analysis at Cointelegraph.
