Bitcoin’s Price Action Mirrors Previous Cycles, Sparking Concerns of a Potential Crash
Several chartists warn that Bitcoin could fall towards $30,000 in February as its price action mirrors previous four-year cycles. Despite this, large investors continue to accumulate their holdings, signaling long-term confidence in the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s 30% drop from its all-time high did little to deter these investors, who have been buying on dips throughout January.
According to data from Glassnode, so-called “sharks,” or companies with 100 to 1,000 BTC, accumulated their Bitcoin holdings at the fastest rate since 2013. 
BTC shark net position change (30-day average). Source: Glassnode. These companies, which typically include early adopters and institutional trading desks, have accumulated Bitcoin to around $87,900 despite the recent correction from nearly $98,000.
Large Holders’ Accumulation Suggests Confidence in Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook
Historically, similar spikes in shark accumulation have been preceded by strong rallies, including a roughly 160% price increase in a year and the mid-2024 surge that saw BTC rise from around $54,000 to over $116,000. This suggests that large investors are viewing the ongoing BTC decline as a buying opportunity, signaling confidence in the longer-term bullish outlook. However, analysts warn that a bull trap could still drive BTC significantly lower.
Chartists tracking Bitcoin’s four-year cycle warned that the multi-month slump will continue in the coming weeks. For example, analyst Lofty said BTC price could fall to $35,000 in February, calling it a “perfect bull trap” after Bitcoin failed to stay above the top of its ascending channel, as shown below. 
BTC/USDT chart comparing 2021 and 2026 trends. Source: TradingView/Lofty. He compared the structure to Bitcoin’s 2021 double top, where successive breakout attempts trapped late buyers before a sharp, multi-month sell-off.
Leading Crypto Companies Disagree with Downside Scenarios
However, several leading crypto companies spoke out against such downside scenarios, pointing out that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is dead. This included Grayscale Investments, which expected the price of BTC to reach a new record high in the first half of 2026 due to institutional acceptance. Bitwise also predicted that 2026 would be a “boom year” for Bitcoin. These predictions suggest that the cryptocurrency still has significant growth potential, despite the current price action.
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