Bitcoin’s Underperformance: Unpacking the Current Market Cycle
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform gold and major stock indexes, investors are increasingly wondering whether this cycle is unfolding differently than expected. In a new interview with analyst Benjamin Cowen, we explore why Bitcoin is lagging traditional markets and why the current situation could feel strikingly similar to 2019.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Sensitivity to Liquidity Conditions
Cowen points out that while stocks and gold respond positively to expectations of future monetary easing, Bitcoin is far more sensitive to actual liquidity conditions than just optimism. This distinction, he explains, helps illustrate why BTC is struggling to gain momentum even as broader markets push higher. According to Cowen, Bitcoin often needs a clearer macroeconomic catalyst before it can outperform, and that catalyst may not be in place yet.
The Role of Market Mood and Cycles
A central theme of the discussion is mood. Unlike previous cycle peaks that were characterized by widespread retail enthusiasm and speculation, this market was characterized by relative apathy. Cowen explains why it is unusual for Bitcoin to rise to the top in a low-profile environment and how this difference could influence the path forward over the next few years.
The conversation also touches on the debate about the four-year cycle. While many commentators argue that Bitcoin’s historical cycle framework is no longer relevant, Cowen presents data suggesting that broader market cycles, and not just crypto-specific narratives, still play an important role. He explains why macroeconomic headwinds, including labor market trends and tight financial conditions, could continue to weigh on Bitcoin through 2026, even if there are short-term rallies along the way.
Investment Strategies and Expectations
Instead of focusing on exact price targets, the interview focuses on the process rather than the forecast. How investors can think about cycles, risk and patience in an environment where easy liquidity is not guaranteed. Cowen also briefly addresses what this means for altcoins and why expectations of rapid rotations may be misplaced.
Watch the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel to hear Cowen’s full reasoning, charts, and the deeper macroeconomic context behind his outlook. For more information and analysis, visit Cointelegraph.
