Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Saturday, May 31, 2025, official May 2025 PMIs
Manufacturing Sector
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PMI: Rose to 49.5 (expected 49.5 and from 49.0 in April); still below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction for a second month. The improvement in May is likely reflecting some thawing in the icy trade war that chilled again this week. Purchasing managers nevertheless took a cautious approach, evidenced by the index remaining in contraction, amid lingering, and proved justified, uncertainties.
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Large enterprises: PMI at 50.7 (expanding, +1.5 pts).
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Medium-sized: 47.5 (contracting, -1.3 pts).
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Small enterprises: 49.3 (contracting, but improved +0.6 pts).
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Sub-indices:
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Production: 50.7 (expanding, +0.9 pts).
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New orders: 49.8 (contracting, but rebounding +0.6 pts).
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Raw material inventories: 47.4 (still weak, but decline narrowing).
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Employment: 48.1 (slightly improved, but below threshold).
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Supplier delivery times: 50.0 (neutral).
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Non-Manufacturing Sector
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Headline PMI: 50.3 (expected 50.6 and slightly down from 50.4 in April, but still expanding).
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Construction activity: 51.0 (moderate growth, down 0.9 pts).
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Services activity: 50.2 (marginal growth, up 0.1 pt).
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High-performing industries: Rail, air transport, postal, telecoms, IT (all above 55.0).
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Weak sectors: Real estate and capital markets (below 50).
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New orders: 46.1 (rising, but still weak).
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Input prices: 48.2 (still declining, but at a slower pace).
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Selling prices: 47.3 (decline narrowing).
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Employment: 45.5 (unchanged, remains weak).
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Business expectations: 55.9 (slightly down, but still optimistic).
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I posted on Friday on promises of more stimulus incoming:
As I said in the post:
- How many times have we been promised big economic announcements from China … only to be disappointed with incremental change?
I suspect as that date approaches excitement and pumping will build, only to be dashed. Enough whining, its the weekend! Have good one and don’t forget to join early on Monday for the market response to all the news the weekend will bring.
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