The Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate on Wednesday, as policymakers grapple with an evolving economic landscape marked by slowing growth, persistent inflation, and external price pressures.
Nick Timiraos has his review on the meeting at the Wall Street Journal (gated):
In summary (read the full piece if you can access the Journal though, its quite detailed)
Officials now project weaker economic growth, higher unemployment, and firmer inflation compared to their December forecasts, raising concerns about a mild form of stagflation.
Fed signalled it still expects two rate cuts this year
- Powell hinted some policymakers are becoming cautious
- growing number of officials have scaled back their rate-cut expectations, reflecting heightened uncertainty about whether inflation will remain sticky
- Fed officials initially underestimated inflation in 2021, believing it to be “transitory,” only to later hike rates aggressively. Now, with interest rates already at restrictive levels, the Fed must carefully assess whether trade-driven inflation is a short-term shock or a sustained threat.
The potential impact of tariffs and global supply chain adjustments could lead to prolonged price pressures.
- Policymakers appear committed to a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing inflation control while remaining prepared to adjust policy if signs of a deeper slowdown emerge.
Markets waiting ….
