With the U.S. presidential elections only one freaking day away, the fever of political betting on Polymarket is sweeping up traders and political junkies.
Kamala Harris is gaining ground on Polymarket, the blockchain oracle of predictions. Her odds skyrocketed over the weekend but peered off today to 59-41 in favor of a Trump victory. This tilt in Harris’ fortunes has ignited a frenzy of market moves, hinting at ripple effects for crypto and Bitcoin’s price.
Understanding Why Polymarket is Shifting For Kamala Harris
Besides running the NYC Marathon on Sunday, I haven’t closed a tab on my phone for Polymarket and its rival political betting company, Kalshi.
Polymarket allows users to buy shares in potential outcomes, effectively placing bets on future events. Shares indicating a Harris victory have surged to over 41 cents from 33 cents in late October, reflecting an upward trajectory in her odds.
In contrast, Donald Trump’s shares have decreased from 66 to 58 cents in the same timeframe, indicating a narrowing gap between the two contenders.
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This betting surge may be partially attributed to traders’ strategic hedging.
Large-scale transactions exceeding $10,000 suggest a mix of defensive trading and speculation on Harris’ growing chances.
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Polling is Different This Time For Trump
The surge for Trump rests on the hypothesis that he is always undercounted in the polls.
Just look at 2016; we don’t have to show this again, do we? Okay, we have to.
People are more open than ever to admitting they like Donald Trump. Back then, everyone was too embarrassed or scared to admit anything good about him.
If you liked Donald Trump at your job, you were a pariah.
If you posted about Donald Trump on social media, your friends would all block you.
The 2024 election is still a clear toss-up because this time around, it’s hard to figure out if Trump is once again undercounted or if his support is accurate.
The same goes for Harris, who is banking on young women to vote for abortion rights.
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Crypto Market Reactions To Tomorrow’s U.S. Presidential Election
The tightening odds on Polymarket have not gone unnoticed in the crypto sphere. The volatile nature of the election has coincided with significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, with liquidations reaching nearly $350 million as Bitcoin recently dipped below $69,000 per CoinGecko.
With election anxiety reaching a fever pitch, market unpredictability is the name of the game as traders hypothesize the radically different worlds a Harris or Trump presidency will place us in.
Bitcoin’s rollercoaster over the weekend—spiking to nearly $73,300 and then plunging—shows just how twitchy the crypto scene will be until after this election. Speculation runs wild; a Trump win could send Bitcoin soaring to $100,000, but a Harris victory might put a damper on that climb.
Be sure to tune into our 99Bitcoins special election coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday as we parse through the rubble of this 2024 election!
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