Bitcoin’s February Performance: A Historical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a relatively modest monthly gain of 2.2% so far, but historical data suggests that February could mark the beginning of an upward trend. According to Timothy Peterson, a network economist, February has consistently been one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months, with the week ending February 21 seeing a median return of 8.4% since 2016. This has led Peterson to label February as the real “Uptober” event, surpassing the traditionally strong month of October.
Looking at the data, February has delivered an average weekly BTC return of 7%, outperforming October’s seasonal strength. Additionally, the performance at the beginning of February has reliably indicated periods of decline, with 2018, 2022, and 2025 setting the tone within the first three weeks. As seen in the chart below, weekly Bitcoin returns since 2016 have been notable, with a clear upward trend in February.
Macro-Economic Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Performance
Peterson attributes the strong performance in February to macroeconomic factors, rather than crypto-specific drivers. The publication of company results and forecasts for the full year in mid-February tends to be optimistic, leading investors to take a risk-on stance and allocate some capital to Bitcoin. As Peterson notes, “The two-week period February 7-21 has a median weekly return of => 7% per week!!” This optimism, combined with easing volatility, could position Bitcoin for a recovery, especially if macroeconomic stress indicators like the CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) cool down.
Bitcoin researcher Sminston With shares a similar optimistic outlook, predicting that Bitcoin’s maximum price in 2026 could fall between $210,000 and $300,000, based on the Bitcoin Decay Channel model. While this model does not predict a specific point in time, its price ranges have been reliable in the past. The chart below illustrates the Bitcoin Decay Channel, providing a visual representation of the potential price range.
Long-Term Momentum and Consolidation
Despite the recent sharp correction, Bitcoin’s momentum has turned positive, according to Sina, author of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report. The consolidation since the beginning of January has preserved the broader flow structure, with the selloff coinciding with the Nasdaq’s decline following renewed U.S. tariff tensions, suggesting a news-driven move rather than a Bitcoin-specific collapse. XWIN Research supports this view, noting that Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase rather than a clear risk-off trend.
The realized cap continues to rise, indicating that spot capital is still entering the network. As seen in the chart below, the realized Bitcoin cap has been steadily increasing, providing a positive sign for the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision. For more information, visit https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-real-uptober-moment-might-start-in-february-here-s-why
