Understanding the Bitcoin Cycle: Has the Peak Already Been Reached?
No one has a crystal ball, but if Bitcoin continues to behave according to its past cycles, then we have most likely already reached the peak. The cryptocurrency posted an all-time high on October 6 but failed to extend the move as the post-halving period approaches the top zone seen in previous cycles. The 2024 halving occurred on April 20, and previous highs reached around 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving.
In this rhythm, the peak window of the current cycle extends from around mid-October to the end of November. The October 6 value near $126,200 has not been reclaimed, with spot trading fluctuating between $105,000 and $114,000 and key support around $108,000. Bitcoin cycle times (Source: TradingView)
The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Bitcoin
The timing case now overlaps with a clear macroeconomic shock. Since the all-time high, the White House has announced a new tariff package on Chinese imports that includes tariffs of up to 100 percent on some goods. The headline hit crypto as futures shed around $19 billion in liquidations in 24 hours. Derivatives positioning also changed, with demand for downside protection becoming stronger following the wipeout.
Funding pressures on the traditional side also eased as Reuters reported an unusual increase in use of the Federal Reserve’s Permanent Repo Facility, a sign that short-term dollar funding was tightening over the same window. The flow tape remains the short-term arbiter. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds acted as a marginal buyer of the cycle.
A Scenario Framework for Bitcoin Prices
Historical bear markets in Bitcoin lasted about 12 to 18 months, falling about 57 percent from peak to trough in 2018 and about 76 percent in 2014, a pattern recorded by NYDIG. The market structure now includes spot ETFs and deeper derivatives markets, so a lower spread of 35 to 55 percent is a reasonable reference for downside risk management.
Applied to $126,272, this results in lows of approximately $82,000 to $57,000. This schedule would bottom sometime in late 2026 to early 2027, which largely corresponds to the halving frequency mentioned above. The probability that a top has already been reached increases when timing, macro and flow are all trending in the same direction.
Bitcoin Cycle Returns and the Impact of ETFs
Every Bitcoin cycle so far has resulted in diminishing returns. If $126,000 is truly the peak of this cycle, that would represent a gain of 82%. The first decline (Cycle 1→2) resulted in a ~57% decline in returns. The next decline (cycle 2→3) saw a further reduction of approximately 84%.
Had this decay rate continued proportionally (approximately 70-80% less per cycle), the expected return would have been around 50-70%, not 82%. So the potential increase of 82% already represents a slight decline compared to the exponential decline pattern implied in previous cycles.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
The leverage profile speaks for patience. Traders added downside hedges after the tariff shock rather than aiming higher. This is consistent with a market more focused on capital preservation than momentum. If ETF inflows don’t rebound quickly, traders’ hedging flows from put purchases could curb the rallies.
With renewed inflows, the structure can shift quickly, which is why the band requires daily attention. None of this ignores the structural supply of Bitcoin created by the ETF wrapper or the long-term effect of a fixed supply. It represents the late cycle setup that is now exerting macroeconomic pressures.
The halving timer is nearing the end of its historical window. The October 6th high is the price to beat. Until the flows change equilibrium, the distribution case remains the cleaner value. For more information, visit https://cryptoslate.com/hodl-or-take-profits-the-bitcoin-bear-market-cycle-started-at-126k/
