Bitcoin Reaches Critical Juncture: Can it Break Above $106,000?
Bitcoin has once again reached a crucial level, with its price hovering around $106,400, a pivot point that has been instrumental in determining the direction of its rallies and pullbacks. As previously discussed, acceptance above this range has historically led to the unlocking of the next level, while rejection has forced a rebuild below the fair value axis. This axis acts as both support and resistance, depending on capital flows and positioning.
The $106,400 band is considered this cycle’s fair value axis, a support and resistance (S/R) pivot that has repeatedly organized trends. Acceptance after a retest is typically bullish, opening up the next shelf, while rejection forces a rebuild at the lower level. This is evident in the Bitcoin market data, which shows a strong correlation between the price and the fair value axis.
Understanding the Market Dynamics
The burden of proof is now on the flows and the bias, with no 5-10 day streak of net ETF creations, i.e., a visible bias toward calls. With a stop above around $126,272, the market is likely to view rallies as a payout. If $106.4K is flipped, the bull market will extend towards $114K-120K; if this fails, the $126,000 top framework will remain in control and reopen at $100,000 into the high $90,000s.
Bitcoin investment products saw net outflows of around $946 million in the week ended November 3, following strong inflows the previous week. This type of flow whiplash is not the 5-10 day creation streak we set as a checklist for the reverse case. According to Farside’s dashboard, daily flow data in the United States spot ETF complex has been inconsistent and inconsistent, with one-time creation days failing to build momentum.
Derivatives Positioning and Open Interest
Derivatives positioning adds a second gate. Open options interest in Deribit reached a record high of nearly $50.27 billion on October 23, with notable put interest concentrated around $100,000. Increased open interest changes the way traders hedge, often locking prices near round strikes and limiting upside potential until the bias changes from put-bid to call-bid.
Without this pivot in the 25-delta skew and without a sustained expansion of spot volume alongside creations, price tends to fall back towards the fair value axis rather than building a platform above it. The level map is straightforward and mechanical, with a clean daily close followed by a weekly close above $106,400 to $108,000 converting the range from ceiling to support.
Path Forward and Market Outlook
Confirmation comes from two to three consecutive days of net inflows across the US ETF range, a flattening of call bias, and true spot follow-through. If these conditions extend into a 5-10 day creation series, the path opens to previous high volume nodes above $120,000 before the next decision is made. Failure appears as a clean intraday stab above the pivot, sliding back into the close or a lower high below, while ETF flows remain net negative and the skew lean goes put-bid again.
The path of least resistance is at $103,000, then $100,000, with a break reopening the $90,000 high. This is consistent with previous pivot loss repair phases around the same axis, where failed reclaims forced price to rebuild the structure underneath until the currents and skew changed. There is also the range case, with open interest high and traders sensitive to gamma around the $100,000 and $110,000 strikes, a fix between $102,000 and $109,000 is a reasonable short-term outcome if ETF prints don’t line up and skew fluctuates.
Conclusion and Market Data
In conclusion, the Bitcoin market is at a critical juncture, with the price hovering around $106,400. The burden of proof is on the flows and the bias, and without a 5-10 day streak of net creations, a visible call bias, and holding above around $126,272, rallies are considered a distribution and $100,000 is coming back into view. At press time, Bitcoin is ranked No. 1 by market capitalization, and the same goes for its price, with a market capitalization of $2.12 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $70.66 billion.
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