Bitcoin’s Price Movement: Understanding the Impact of US-China Relations and Tariff Expansion
The current state of Bitcoin’s price movement is a topic of interest for many investors and traders. With deteriorating US-China relations and the recent tariff expansion by US President Donald Trump, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing downward pressure. According to analysts, Bitcoin could potentially fall below $100,000, but they are confident that macroeconomic events in the upcoming week will reverse the downtrend.
Data shows that the Bitcoin market structure is aiming to achieve equilibrium after the sharp correction last week. However, increasing headwinds from Trump’s renewed tariff war with China and the record-breaking length of the US government shutdown are negatively impacting bullish investors’ willingness to open new positions in futures markets. Despite this, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, Coinbase Premium Index, and cumulative spot volume delta have shown a steady upward trend since Bitcoin sold to $107,000 on the exchange on October 10.
The chart below illustrates the volume delta, funding, and open interest dynamics of the Bitcoin markets since the sell-off on October 10th. US retail and institutional investors are clearly accumulating BTC, while Binance perpetual futures traders have been selling aggressively.
Short-Term Price Movement and Liquidation Clusters
Comparing the Binance spot to its futures volumes, the spot delta is positive, while the negative perpetrator delta highlights rising short positions. This reinforces the view that perpetrator-driven selling is amplifying the downtrend, while spot buyer demand provides strength at $107,000 to $108,000. An alternative view of this expression is shown below.
Considering Bitcoin’s potential short-term price movement, the Liquidation Heatmap Outlook suggests that momentum traders could track liquidation clusters for long positions at $106,300 to $104,000, and short positions at $115,000 are in danger of being closed out.
Expert Insights and Upcoming Macroeconomic Events
Lekker Capital Chief Investment Officer Quinn Thompson stated, “The 10/10 liquidation achieved more leverage in dollars and % of OI than the entire January-April 2025 period. The opportunities ahead are similar to those before Trump won in 2024.” Macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital reminded traders to “trade only on price action” as the next week is expected to bring numerous actionable events, including the US CPI release, possible reopening of the US government, Fed rate cut, and Nikkei hits 50,000.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it is essential for investors and traders to stay informed about the latest developments and expert insights. For more information, visit https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-wants-to-go-up-but-trump-s-tariffs-aren-t-helping-will-the-admin-taco-again?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss_category_market-analysis&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
