Bitcoin’s Decline Signals Entry into Bear Market, On-Chain Metrics Suggest
Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent decline below $90,000 has pushed on-chain profitability metrics into negative territory, indicating that the cryptocurrency may be entering a bear market, according to new research. Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s price action has established a new range on shorter time frames, with market watchers closely observing key support levels below.
The net realized profit/loss metric, which captures the total gains or losses that investors make when moving coins on-chain, has fallen to 69,000 BTC over the past 30 days, signaling a significant decline in market strength. This decline has led analysts to predict a “prolonged consolidation” for BTC’s price.
On-Chain Profitability Cycle Turns Negative
According to CryptoQuant, a provider of on-chain data, Bitcoin holders are moving from booking profits to realizing losses for the first time in over two years. The report states that realized profit peaks have been declining since March 2024, indicating that prices are losing momentum as the bull market ends. 
Bitcoin net realized profit and loss. Source: CryptoQuant
Annual net realized profits have also declined sharply, falling from 4.4 million BTC in October to 2.5 million BTC, a level last seen in March 2022. This reinforces the theory that “on-chain earnings momentum is now consistent with early-stage bear market conditions.” 
Bitcoin: Annual Net Profit and Loss Chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Key Support Levels for Bitcoin Price
The recent sell-off has seen the BTC/USD pair fall 9% from its 2026 high of $97,930. As a result, Bitcoin has lost key support levels, including the 75th percentile cost base, which currently sits at $92,940. Bitcoin “is now trading below the cost basis of 75% of supply, indicating increasing distribution pressure,” according to Glassnode. 
Bitcoin: Supply Percentile Cost Base Model. Source: Glassnode
The Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap shows that investors have acquired approximately 941,651 BTC at the $89,000-$90,000 level over the past six months, suggesting that it is an important support level. 
Bitcoin cost base distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
The next major support level is around $80,000, where over 127,000 BTC were previously acquired. Many analysts agree that a weak derivatives market, selling by long-term holders, and BTC transfers to exchanges could push Bitcoin’s price into a prolonged downtrend this year. For more information, visit https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-in-early-stage-bear-market-84k-crucial-btc-price
