Bitcoin Price Analysis: Understanding the Current Market Trends
Bitcoin has recently surged above $90,000, sparking discussions about whether this momentum can propel the cryptocurrency to reach $95,000 for the first time in seven weeks. Despite this upward trend, options data indicates that traders are cautious about potential downside risks. This article delves into the current market trends, examining the factors influencing Bitcoin’s price and the sentiment of investors.
The S&P 500 is trading just 1.3% below its all-time high, yet investors are increasingly concerned about the economic situation, particularly after Tesla reported disappointing sales. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index futures have failed to reclaim the 26,000 level, reflecting the sector’s uncertainty between optimism about artificial intelligence and risks related to weaker U.S. jobs data. Tesla’s total deliveries in the fourth quarter were 418,227 units, down 15% from 495,570 a year earlier, leading to a 2.5% fall in its shares on Friday.
Nasdaq index futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Economic Uncertainty and Its Impact on Bitcoin
The economic uncertainty is limiting Bitcoin’s price recovery. While there is moderate optimism in China following Baidu’s decision to spin off its artificial intelligence chip unit, the tech sector’s valuations are considered overly stretched, supporting the Nasdaq’s 20% gains in 2025. However, traders fear that this growth may not be sustainable, affecting Bitcoin’s potential for further price increases.
Bitcoin’s price has remained in a relatively tight 6% range over the past 20 days, leaving investors uneasy as the breakout above resistance continues to be delayed. The base interest rate for Bitcoin futures was below the neutral threshold, indicating a lack of confidence from bulls. The current 4% annual premium over spot markets reflects traders’ fears about the broader economy, particularly concerning U.S. import tariffs.
Bitcoin 2-month futures base rate. Source: laevitas.ch
Market Sentiment and Bitcoin ETFs
The lack of demand for leveraged bullish Bitcoin positions may be related to selling pressure in Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since December 15, these products have seen net outflows of more than $900 million. In contrast, gold ETFs have posted seven straight weeks of net inflows, potentially indicating weaker confidence in U.S. economic growth amid rising concerns over the government’s fiscal position.
Daily net inflows of the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF, USA. Source: CoinGlass
Options Market and Investor Sentiment
To determine whether Bitcoin whales and market makers have turned bullish after the 3.2% rise over two days, it’s necessary to examine activity in the BTC options market. Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a premium, indicating that professional traders are demanding more compensation for downside price risk. Although the indicator remains in the neutral range, it is still far from turning bullish, suggesting continued skepticism near $90,000 without signs of excessive fear.
Bitcoin 1-month options delta skew (put call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
For more information on the current Bitcoin market trends and analysis, visit Cointelegraph.
