Unpacking the Relationship Between Crypto IPOs and Market Peaks
The cryptocurrency market has long been known for its volatility and unpredictability, with various indicators and signals being closely watched by investors to gauge market trends. One such signal that has garnered significant attention is the initial public offering (IPO) of crypto-related companies. The question on everyone’s mind is whether these IPOs are a reliable indicator of a market top or simply a reflection of investor enthusiasm during the peak of a late cycle. To explore this further, let’s examine the historical data and patterns surrounding crypto IPOs and their correlation with market peaks.
A closer look at the timeline reveals an interesting pattern. Coinbase’s direct listing on April 14, 2021, coincided with Bitcoin’s then-record high of nearly $64,000. Similarly, Stronghold Digital Mining’s IPO in October 2021 occurred about three weeks before Bitcoin peaked at $68,789 on November 10. This cycle, we saw Bullish’s debut on August 13, 2025, and Figure’s pricing on September 10, 2025, both of which landed near $126,198 within eight and four weeks of Bitcoin’s all-time high on October 6. Grayscale’s public offering on November 13, 2025, followed the peak by a little over a month, adding a late entry to the same window.
Crypto Bull Market IPOs: A Closer Look
Coinbase became synonymous with top timing in 2021 due to the calendar alignment. Stronghold’s placement neared the ultimate cycle high in November after the market paused from May to July. In 2025, Bullish and Figure lined up in August and September, and Bitcoin completed the move in early October. While this sequence neither proves a rule nor provides a clock, it gives portfolio managers a clear anchor for late-cycle monitoring as dates are set, filings reveal deal mix, and deals provide book quality details.
The cluster helps determine risk appetite in real time. Bullish’s August debut drew strong first-day trading and a valuation near the top of its range. According to the company, the price is at $25, while the Bitcoin release in October set the cycle at a high on all major exchanges. Then, the tone changed from listing to filing, with Grayscale reporting revenue of $318.7 million and net income of $203.3 million for the first nine months of 2025 and acknowledging fee pressures in its public filings.
Calculating the Bull Market IPO Signal
An easy way to track the pattern is to measure the days from each listing to the cycle high. The 2021 and 2025 windows are in a range that feels tradable, about T minus 60 days to T plus 30 days, where T is the all-time high. Coinbase hit T0, Stronghold near T minus 22, Bullish near T minus 54, Figure near T minus 26, and Grayscale’s filing near T plus 38. This rhythm appears to be less of a coincidence and more of a funding market timing preference, with teams favoring up-tape windows for valuation while investors find that liquidity without a perpetual growth path can coincide with distribution in the secondary market.
Below is a brief table of anchor data to calibrate this window.
| Pursue | ticker | Date of listing | Cycle ATH anchor | Days from ATH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | COIN | April 14, 2021 | BTC ATH, April 14, 2021 | 0 |
| Stronghold Digital Mining | Sdig | 19-20 Oct 2021 | BTC ATH, November 10, 2021 | ~22 ago |
| Bullish | BLSH | August 13, 2025 | BTC ATH, October 6, 2025 | ~54 before |
| Figure technology solutions | fig | September 10, 2025 | BTC ATH, October 6, 2025 | ~26 ago |
| Grayscale (public IPO filing) | — | November 13, 2025 | BTC ATH, October 6, 2025 | ~38 after that |
Late-cycle values do not rule out new highs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in 2024 created new structural demand that can smooth out the usual post-listing decline. This plumbing is important for flow to exchanges, miners, and asset managers. Nevertheless, the role of the public market as a clearing mechanism is tending to regain importance.
Balance the Band
It is also important who lists. Stock market listings were the cleanest timing markers, which suits business models that benefit from sales spikes. The miners’ record is mixed, with many coming off peaks in 2021-22. There are also counterexamples. Canaan’s November 2019 IPO approached a bear market bottom, reminding us that macroeconomic developments, product cycles, and company-specific characteristics can overwhelm seasonal timing.
The next checkpoints are straightforward. Observe whether Gemini’s roadshow cadence and pricing match or diverge. Track how Grayscale’s valuation compares to fee pressures and the mix of retail and institutional demand. Keep an eye on Kraken’s stance in 2026 as you can see in real time whether the window will reopen after a consolidation.
If the thesis needs a sentence, it is this: Crypto IPOs do not call highs by decree. They accumulate towards the end of strong runs, as that is when the market pays the most for flow-through profits, and this cycle followed the same script.
At press time, 5:09 pm UTC on Nov. 21, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked No. 1 by market capitalization, and the same goes for its price down 2.95% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.69 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $137.49 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin.
At press time, 5:09 pm UTC on Nov 21, 2025, the entire crypto market is valued at $2.9 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $278.66 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 58.31%. Learn more about the crypto market.
Source: https://cryptoslate.com/new-bitcoin-top-signal-is-in-the-bear-market-indicator-you-hate-to-see/
