Nvidia Earnings Report: A Crucial Test for AI Trading
Wall Street is holding its breath as Nvidia prepares to release its third-quarter 2026 earnings report, scheduled for after the closing bell today, November 19. This highly anticipated event is expected to be the biggest earnings report of the year, with analysts and investors closely watching the company’s performance. The world’s most valuable company, with a market capitalization that briefly topped $5 trillion last month, is under immense pressure to deliver impressive results.
Analysts expect Nvidia to report sales of $54.9 billion, representing a 57% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share of $1.25. However, the bar is set extremely high, and any signs of weakness could lead to a significant market reaction. Nvidia shares closed at $181.36 on Tuesday, down nearly 14.5% from their October 29 all-time high of $212.19, as concerns about AI bubble valuations and the sustainability of massive infrastructure spending sparked a broad tech sell-off.
Market Expectations and Challenges
Options markets are pricing in a potential 7-8% fluctuation in either direction after the results, which could result in a $320 billion jump in market value, marking the most post-earnings volatility in Nvidia’s history. The company faces increasing skepticism about AI trading itself, with high-profile investors like Michael Burry disclosing short positions and raising red flags about possible accounting irregularities related to chip devaluation. Additionally, Peter Thiel’s hedge fund dumped its entire $100 million Nvidia stake, and SoftBank sold $5.8 billion worth of shares to finance its own AI projects.
The broader market environment is equally challenging, with the Nasdaq falling over 4% in November, its biggest monthly decline since March, as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December fades and inflation concerns weigh on risk assets. Data center revenue is expected to account for approximately $49 billion of the quarter’s total revenue, driven by continued demand for Hopper chips and the highly anticipated Blackwell platform surge that CEO Jensen Huang has described as experiencing “incredible” demand from hyperscalers and foundation modelers.
Analyst Predictions and Geopolitical Headwinds
Despite recent selloffs and bubble worries, most Wall Street analysts remain bullish, with Stifel raising its price target to $250 before the earnings release and Wedbush’s Dan Ives calling Nvidia “a cornerstone” of the AI revolution. The company has beaten earnings expectations in 19 of the last 21 quarters, and the consensus view is another beat and raise scenario. However, the real test will be Q4 instructions, with analysts expecting around $61.5 billion, and anything lower than that could trigger a sharp sell-off.
Geopolitical headwinds loom large as third-quarter results rule out any H20 chip sales to China due to export restrictions and new Chinese regulations requiring state-funded data centers to use only domestic AI chips. Still, retail sentiment remains mostly bullish, with Polymarket traders 96% expecting the company to beat its quarterly earnings. For more information and live updates, visit https://cryptonews.com/news/live-nvidia-earnings-report-today-wall-street-braces-for-q3-results-as-ai-bubble-concerns-mount-will-nvda-beat-expectations/
