Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: Harvest Now, Decrypt Later
Quantum computers could potentially break Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses, and a former hacker turned CEO, David Carvalho, warns that the countdown has already started. As the CEO of the cybersecurity company Naoris Protocol, Carvalho emphasizes that the cryptographic defenses of the blockchain may not be able to withstand the upcoming wave of quantum computing and AI technologies.
At the center of his warning is a tactic known as “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later,” where attackers are stockpiling encrypted Bitcoin transactions and waiting for future machines powerful enough to crack the private keys. Carvalho’s history as a hacker and his experience advising NATO and Fortune 500 companies give his warnings significant weight. He is now sounding the alarm that Bitcoin’s weak spots for quantum computers are real, and the protection of the Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) from SHA-256 and elliptical curve could be exposed to a quiet breakdown of Bitcoin systems if the industry hesitates to upgrade.
Did you know? The Willow Quantum Chip from Google showed an astonishing speed benchmark, solving problems in minutes that would take the fastest classic supercomputers over 102 years.
Bitcoin’s Weak Points for Quantum Computers
Bitcoin’s security is based on two cryptographic columns: SHA-256, which protects the mining process and transaction integrity, and ECDSA, which protects private keys behind what are currently considered unbreakable signatures. However, under the threat of quantum computers, this equation changes. One day, algorithms such as Shor’s could give a powerful quantum computer the ability to derive a private key from a public key in a few minutes, enabling the theft of funds from any address before a transaction is even made.
Security experts emphasize that the security of the cryptocurrency does not mean “safe up to Q-Day.” State actors and cybercrime groups are already harvesting data for the “harvest now, decrypt later” crypto risk and building quiet archives that they can exploit when the hardware catches up. The mixture of AI in crypto and quantum technology can dramatically accelerate this timeline. Carvalho argues that AI could help identify weaknesses in blockchain cryptography, while quantum hardware delivers the raw performance to exploit them.
The exposure can already be measured. About 25% to 30% of all Bitcoin – around 6 million to 7 million Bitcoin (BTC) – is reused in legacy address types such as Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) or P2PK-Hashes. These formats reveal public keys and immediately make them vulnerable as soon as quantum attacks become feasible. These resting and reused coins represent a huge part of the circulating BTC and, in the broader sense, affect Bitcoin price stability and adoption confidence.
The Silent Breakdown of Bitcoin Systems?
David Carvalho warns of what he calls a “silent breakdown of Bitcoin systems,” a new generation of quantum attacks that break signatures with AI-controlled quantum attacks and can handle detection completely. Instead of a loud exploit with headlines, these attacks would slowly corrode trust in the blockchain itself, redesigning balances and consensus without leaving obvious forensic traces.
In this vision, conventional security measures would prove to be almost useless. Penetration tests, anomaly detection software, and even watchdog nodes could all miss the violation. AI could automatically examine weaknesses in blockchain cryptography, simulate network behavior, and adapt its tactics during ongoing flights, while quantum machines quietly crack private keys in the background. Carvalho’s warning is blunt: there is no live stream of a cracking algorithm in action. Instead, integrity would fray invisibly – missing transactions here, a tacit vote that was unexplained there – until the assumption of Bitcoin suffers a crisis of trust.
Quantum-Resistant Blockchain Security, Explained
Developers take the quantum threat to Bitcoin seriously, and several defense efforts are already in motion. However, they show how difficult real protection will be. For instance, GD-360 (Pay-to-Tocantum-Resistant-Hash or P2QRH) introduces quantum-resistant signature schemes and hybrid address formats. These enable Bitcoin to gradually migrate into post-quantum cryptography in crypto systems and create new protective measures without breaking the old overnight.
Post-Quantum Infrastructure companies like Naoris Protocol build decentralized networks for the integration of quantum-resistant blockchain security directly into transaction layers and combine threat detection with cryptography that does not depend on vulnerable elliptical curves. Quantum-proof technologies such as strong-based zero-knowledge rollups receive attention for their hash-based proof systems, which should find many of the weaknesses of quantum computers.
But even the best solutions encounter a reality check: Bitcoin’s strength is its decentralization, and that makes difficult upgrades challenging. A Bitcoin cryptography update (especially one as deep as the replacement of its core signature scheme) requires broad agreement between mining workers, node operators, item wallets, and users.
Crypto Safety in Quantum Times
Not everyone shares Carvalho’s alarm. Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, rejected the Bitcoin vs. quantum narrative as exaggerated. When he spoke on CNBC, he framed it as a “quantum marketing gimmick” and pointed out that companies like Google or Microsoft do not publish machines that can break their own encryption, and that if necessary, “Bitcoin can easily be updated.”
A broader expert mood is less repellent, but still measured. Many cryptographers see the risk horizon for Bitcoin’s weak spots for quantum computers stretching for a decade or longer, with the most cautious estimates pointing to the 2040s. Optimists say that the turning point may only arrive long after 2035. Pessimists warn that this could occur within five to ten years.
Panic is not productive, but complacency could be worse. Most specialists in cryptocurrency security agree that preparing Bitcoin now is much more secure than crawling later. If Bitcoin defenders coordinate about digital asset protection today, the transition to post-quantum cryptography in crypto could look like a controlled upgrade. Delay too long, and it could look like the “silent collapse” Carvalho fears.
Learn more about the quantum threat to Bitcoin and the measures being taken to protect it at https://cointelegraph.com/explained/why-a-hacker-turned-ceo-believes-quantum-tech-could-break-bitcoin?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss_tag_blockchain&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
