Bitcoin’s Breakout: A Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to recapture the $100,000 mark and potentially rally towards $107,000 in the coming days, driven by a combination of supportive technical and fundamental metrics. The cryptocurrency’s breakout is gaining momentum, supported by bullish technicals and easing selling pressure. In this article, we will explore the key insights and factors contributing to this potential price movement.
The macroeconomic signals suggest a slight uptrend, with liquidity expansion and a divergence between BTC and gold. This divergence is particularly noteworthy, as it has historically been a bullish indicator for Bitcoin. Additionally, the slowdown in sales from long-term holders, also known as “old guns” (OGs), has reduced selling pressure, allowing the price to rise more easily.
Technical Indicators: Ascending Triangle and Bull Cross
Bitcoin confirmed its breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle earlier this week and entered a textbook post-breakout retest phase. After breaking the pattern’s upper boundary at around $95,000, BTC retraced to retest previous resistance as support before bouncing higher, a move usually associated with valid breakouts rather than false moves. Holding this reclaimed level keeps the “true breakout” structure intact and preserves the pattern’s measured upside target at $107,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
At the same time, Bitcoin’s daily chart was approaching a potential bullish crossover between the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMAs). The last time BTC recorded a similar bull cross, the price rose by around 17% in the following month, strengthening the case for a continuation of the trend if the signal is confirmed.
Long-term Holders Reduce Sales
Bitcoin’s breakout gained credibility as selling pressure from long-term holders continued to subside. Data tracking UTXOs issued by OG Bitcoin holders, coins that have been inactive for more than five years, showed that distribution had slowed significantly in recent local spikes. In January, the 90-day average issued peaked at nearly 2,300 BTC early in the cycle, but later fell towards the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting fewer coins are entering the market.
STXO from OG Bitcoin holders (>5 years). Source: CryptoQuant
At the start of the rally, OG selling had risen to levels well above the previous bull market, reflecting an unusually attractive exit window created by spot ETF demand, higher liquidity, and institutional participation. However, the slowdown in OG sales also coincided with the largest net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges since December 2024.
BTC net transfer volume from/to exchanges. Source: Glassnode
Negative Bitcoin-Gold Correlation: A Bullish Sign for BTC
Another macro signal consistent with the breakout thesis comes from Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold. In previous cases where BTC’s correlation with gold turned negative, Bitcoin rose an average of 56% in about two months. The only exception in May 2021 was due to exogenous shocks, including China’s mining crackdown and forced deleveraging.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
From 2026 onwards, the constellation appeared to be more favorable, supported by increasing global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening. As Arthur Hayes noted, Bitcoin’s “groove” has returned, despite gold and Nasdaq being in the spotlight.
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