Uncovering the Truth Behind Bitcoin’s Price: An Interview with James Check
Bitcoin’s price may seem deceptively familiar, but according to on-chain analyst James Check, beneath the surface the market has changed far more than most investors realize. In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Check delves into the intricacies of the current market, debunking common myths and providing valuable insights for investors.
Check addresses a question he was asked earlier this year: Are we in a bull market or a bear market? According to him, while Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near similar price levels, leverage, investor cost bases, and seller behavior are now very different, and all of these changes are significant. In fact, much of the capital currently invested in Bitcoin was acquired at higher prices, putting pressure on many holders and creating cautious sentiment.
Debunking Common Myths
One of the most persistent myths in this cycle, Check argues, is the idea that long-term holders simply don’t sell. On-chain data shows that coins of all ages, from months to many years, have returned to the market unusually quickly. He says this supply has played an important role in recent price movements, although the narrative didn’t catch up until much later. Check also rejects claims that exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Michael Saylor or corporate finance have “hijacked” Bitcoin, stating that these entities only account for a portion of overall market activity.
The bigger takeaway, he suggests, is how large and liquid Bitcoin has become, able to absorb massive inflows without the kind of volatility seen in previous cycles. This is a testament to the growing maturity of the market and its ability to adapt to changing conditions. Check’s analysis is supported by data, which shows that Bitcoin’s market has become more resilient and less prone to extreme price swings.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Looking ahead, Check shares his current framework for 2026, questioning both blind optimism and outright bearishness. He emphasizes the importance of considering multiple scenarios and being prepared for different outcomes. The conversation also touches on government bond launches, portfolio construction, and longer-term risks that most investors rarely think about. Check’s insights provide valuable guidance for investors looking to navigate the complex and ever-changing world of cryptocurrency.
For a deeper dive into Check’s analysis and data, watch the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel. To stay up-to-date with the latest news and insights from the world of cryptocurrency, visit Cointelegraph.
