XRP Price Analysis: Downtrend Extends, But Data Predicts 85% Bounce
The XRP price has declined by almost 20% in the last 45 days, consolidating in a descending triangle pattern near the $2.70 support level. This correction has led to a decrease in open interest rates, from $11 billion to $7.5 billion, indicating reduced speculative exposure. However, on-chain and futures data suggest that the estimated leverage ratio has reset to its annual average, reducing the likelihood of cascading liquidations and supporting price stability during corrections.
On-Chain Indicators and Futures Positioning
On-chain indicators, such as the Net Taker volume, have shifted closer to neutral, supported by an increase in the aggregated cumulative volume delta (CVD). This suggests that buyers may already be in accumulation mode. Additionally, the futures positioning contributes to this picture, with the aggregated Futures CVD decreasing steadily, and financing rates normalizing to quarterly averages, indicating that overcrowded positions have been cleared.
Potential Price Movement
In the daily chart, XRP continues to act within a descending triangle, repeatedly testing the $2.70 support level. A daily/weekly fair-value gap between $2.35 and $2.65 has been created as a key zone to observe. A pressure below $2.70 could drive XRP into this area, where a reaction is likely. The importance of this gap is reinforced by Fibonacci retracement levels, with the range from 0.5 to 0.618 closely aligned with the $2.65 zone.
CoinTelegraph’s analysis, combined with the weight of market structure, suggests that XRP’s market structure is similar to a Q1 fractal pattern that preceded a sharp outbreak. If this pattern repeats, XRP could achieve gains of 60% to 85% in the fourth quarter. Crypto trader Javon Marks also emphasizes a similar bullish tendency, stating that “as long as the $2.47 level holds, prices may only be preparing for a further +66% move to the upside.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trade movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. For more information, visit https://cointelegraph.com/news/xrp-downtrend-extends-but-data-predicts-85percent-bounce
