Introduction to the Quiet Crash of Real Estate
In a surprising turn of events, the real estate market is experiencing a silent crisis, hidden behind rising fiat prices. A closer look through the lens of Bitcoin reveals a different story. In April 2023, a Bitcoin investor, known as Breadman, purchased a property for $496,000, equivalent to 22.5 BTC at the time. Fast forward to August 2025, the property’s value has increased to $570,000, a 15% profit. However, when measured in Bitcoin, the property’s value has dropped to 4.85 BTC, resulting in a staggering 78% loss.
The Global Real Estate Market: A Closer Look
While some countries, such as Spain and Portugal, have seen significant growth in property prices, the global market is uncertain. In North America, the United Kingdom, and parts of Europe, the pace of property appreciation has slowed down. According to a UBS global forecast for 2025, capital values are expected to be “quite flat,” with the residential sector showing only “modest buoyancy.”
The Erosion of Fiat: Understanding Real Gains
A 15% gain in two years may seem impressive, but inflation eats into these fiat gains. Revised forecasts predict US inflation to be over 4% in 2025. Adding local volatility and global guideline changes, the actual return on real estate is often lower than the headline. In emerging countries with high inflation rates, nominal profits are erased, and real prosperity is undermined. For example, Argentina’s annual inflation exceeded 200% in 2023, resulting in significant losses for property owners.
Bitcoin: The Ultimate Measurement Standard
Since April 2023, Bitcoin has increased from ~$22,000 to over $118,000, outperforming every major asset class and dwarfing dollar profits in real estate. While houses may become more expensive in fiat, they become considerably cheaper in BTC terms. James Gavish, a macroinvestor and Bitcoin advocate, notes that global real estate is the largest addressable wealth class seeking inflation protection, with $998 trillion in capital parked in real estate and other global assets, all of which are constantly losing value against Bitcoin’s scarce, deflationary model.
The ‘Bitcoin Pizza’ Effect: When Value Becomes Parabolic
Exchanging Bitcoin for other assets has proven to be extremely costly over the years. The infamous example of Laszlo Hanyecz, who traded 10,000 BTC for two pizzas in 2010, is a cautionary tale. At the time, the coins were worth around $41; today, they would be worth over $1.1 billion. This legendary loss of Bitcoin value serves as a warning for those who measure prosperity solely in dollars. As global headlines tout resistant or rising real estate prices, a new reality emerges for those with a Bitcoin perspective: a real estate crash in BTC terms, with inflation further undermining fiat gains.
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