- Gold price edges lower in Friday’s early Asian session, pressured by profit-taking.
- Mounting uncertainty about tariffs and recession fears could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price.
- Fed’s Daly is set to speak later on Friday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady on Friday after retreating from an all-time high of $3,358 as investors book profits during a long Easter weekend. Significant uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports into the US and ongoing geopolitical tensions could underpin the Gold price, which is known as a safe haven asset.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Powell said that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the Fed’s goals and make a stagflationary scenario possible. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly is scheduled to speak later on Friday. Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.
Gold price drifts lower on Good Friday
- “Gold remains heavily supported by a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty around tariff announcements and fears about a global recession,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at online trading broker FXTM.
- The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 dropped to 215K, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This figure came in below initial estimates and was lower than the previous week of 224K (revised from 223K).
- Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending April 5 went up by 41K to 1.885M versus 1.844M prior (revised from 1.85M).
- The US Building Permits rose 1.6% to 1.482 million in March, exceeding the 1.45 million estimates. Meanwhile, Housing Starts declined to 1.324M in March from 1.494M in February (revised from 1.501M).
- Money market traders have priced in nearly 86 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold price bullish bias lingers, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls
Gold price trades on a flat note on the day. The precious metal keeps the bullish vibe on the daily timeframe, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves above the 70.00 mark, indicating overbought conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off is on the cards.
On the bright side, the immediate resistance level to watch is $3,355, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could pave the way to the $3,400 psychological level.
In the bearish case, the low of April 18 at $3,230 acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. Further south, the next contention level is seen at $3,105, the low of April 2.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
