Goldman Sachs sought out academic studies on how tariffs impact:
- The broader statistical evidence points to negative net employment effects.
- While the range of estimates is wide, academic studies generally find that a 1Opp increase in tariff rates raises employment in protected industries by 0.2-0.4% but that each 1pp increase in tariff-driven costs lowers employment by 0.3-0.6%.
- Scaling these estimates to the US economy imply a boost of just under 100k to manufacturing employment from tariff protection but a roughly 500k drag on downstream employment from input cost pressures.
Bolding is mine. Manufacturing jobs added, around +100K, but the wider impact is negative, 500K of job losses.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
